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Executive Summary (18 January 2005) 1. The 2004-05 EI Nino event continues to limp along, with large-scale SST anomalies that barely exceed I C (2F). Nevertheless, quite a few global and regional precipitation anomalies have been consistent with typical EI Nino-associations (for instance, a failed summer monsoon in India, a dry fall in Indonesia, and a wet (dry) fall in the southwestern (northwestern) U.S.). 2. After a wet summer and fall in the eastern half of Colorado (western Colorado only caught up in the fall), our snowpack has been flirting with "normal" values over the last months, a welcome change compared to recent years. Of course, this recovery is a far cry from the almost biblical precipitation events recorded over Utah and points southwest this fall. Meanwhile, the expected early-winter dry spells appear to recur regularly, and are on tap yet again for the next two weeks. 3. In my experimental forecasts for Jan-Mar '05, the odds for above-normal precipitation reach significant levels only over the north-central mountains of Colorado, while weaker reverse odds apply to northern Utah and east Colorado. The wet forecast for north-central Colorado is considered more reliable than other forecasts. A first look at the subsequent spring season (April-June) continues the recent tendency towards wet conditions in New Mexico, but raises the possibility of renewed dry spells in southwest Utah and eastern Colorado. 4. Boltomline: EI Nino has returned to the Pacific, but is weaker than many historic events, and appears to focus on the central rather than the eastern basin. Its recent influence on our climate is debatable. In fact, my "wet" forecast for the north-central mountains of Colorado is not directly driven by the EI Nino, but eastern Pacific SST developments largely independent of it. If the current EI Nino event does not fade away too soon, the currently mixed odds for a wet spring would improve for both Utah and Colorado.