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<br />Model Forecasts of ENSO from Dee 2004 <br /> <br />3 <br /> <br />IRI <br /> <br />'.5 ..... --;........~.... ... . ~........~.... <br />. . <br /> <br />. - ~. .. .... . ~. . -. ... .;... - -.. .:... .. <br />. . . <br /> <br />................... <br />. . <br /> <br />Dynamical Model: <br />. NASA <br />. N.:EP,CFS <br />. JMA <br />. SCRIPPS <br />. lDEO <br />. AUS'POAMA <br />. ECMWF <br />. KOREA SNU <br />. ZHAN3 ICM <br />. ECHAM MOM <br />. OOLA AN::)M <br /> <br />Statis1icall-Aod.l: <br />o CPC MRKOV <br />o COC LlI~ <br />o CPC CA <br />o CPC CCA <br />csu CLlPR <br />UIlC NNET <br />o FSU REGR <br />o LCu,.. TCD <br /> <br />ENSO forecasts from 11 numerical and 8 statistical forecast <br />models: persistence hard to beat into mid-200S! <br /> <br /> <br />u <br />'L- <br />>- <br />;;; <br />E <br />g <br />'" <br />tn 05 <br /><Il <br />.. <br />M <br />o <br />Z <br />z <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />.......-.....................--.-...... <br />. . , , <br />. . . . <br /> <br />--~, <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />.,. <br /> <br />o <br /> <br />. <br />~ . <br />.....,.......~.._... <br /> <br />.." <br /> <br />. . <br />......................................-................................. <br /> <br />. . <br />. . <br />-1 .......;.........,;....... .;........;.. <br />. . <br /> <br />. . . . . . <br />..-..,..........................,.......-,.........-... <br /> <br />-" <br /> <br />. , . <br />. , . <br />. " " " <br />. ..;..... ...~........~ .....-- ~.. ..... :.--.....~....... .:.... .---~... ... ..:....... .;.... <br />. . . . <br />" . <br />" . <br />.. . <br />OBS :FORE(';AST :, , <br /> <br />-2 <br />SON Nov NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO <br />2004 2005 <br />