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Final Draft - Preferred Storage Options Plan Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District June 8. 2000 2.2 Forecast Water Demands Currently, average annual water demand in the District is nearly I million acre-feet, of which 85 percent is agricultural water use. The Arkansas River Basin native water supply is over- appropriated. Creation of additional water storage in the Basin will not develop any "new" water. Additional reservoir storage capacity will, however, allow water users in the Basin to more fully use and better manage their existing water resources. There are several "external" pressures on the water resources of the Arkansas Basin. The City of Aurora, which is outside of the District and the Basin, has water rights in both the Upper Basin and Lower Basin. The final outcome of litigation between the States of Colorado and Kansas over the Arkansas River flows at the State Line likely will be decided in the 2000-2001 time frame. Colorado may have to deliver additional water to Kansas to compensate for prior flow depletions issued by alluvial well pumping. The most immediate result of the litigation has been the requirement to fully augment alluvial wells in the Lower Basin, placing additional demands on the surface water resources of the Basin. The need for additional storage to meet long-range water management objectives of the District's water users is based on the water supply versus water demand evaluations presented in the GEl Studvami summarized in Sectinn ., ~ .I . - - ----- -.-- Municipal use within the District in 1997 was 148,000 af (GEl, 1998). Assuming future agricultural demand will be equal to current lise, total water demand in the District is forecast to be between 1,086,000 and 1,178,000 afby the year 2040. Municipal and industrial demand in the year 2040 is forecast to be between 253,000 and 345,000 af, assuming an industrial demand out~ide the municipal sector of 10,000 afper year. As municipal demand increases, the percentage of total demand that is agricultural use will decrease from 85 percent to between 71 and 77 percent of the total water demand within the District. 2.2.1 Municipal and Industrial Water Demand Population growth within the District boundaries is presented on Figure 2.2 for two cases, a Base and High projection scenario. As described in the GEl Study, the Base projection is considered to be a "most likely" projection with a 50 percent probability of being exceeded. The High projection represents a more optimistic view of future economic growth. The High projection has an estimated exceedance probability of 15 percent. The High projection was selected for use in planning. As described later in this report, water project development can be effectively staged so that growth rates can be evaluated prior to implementing later stages of the project. l\PROIECTS\9906I\ReponsIPrcferred SOP FinaI,wpd 2-3 m GEl Consultants, Inc.