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The Future There is about 61 million acre-feet of reservoir storage capacity in the Colorado River reservoir system. Based on current reservoir operating criteria and projections of increased water use by the Upper Basin. there is approximately a 50 percent probabil- ity of water surpluses in the decade prior to 2010. reduced to 40 percent by 2020 and 30 percent prior to 2030. In other words, the probability of available surplus is decreasing. Till' Colorado River cuts a swath through the Grand Canyon. In order to meet demand, water conservation efforts will have to remain at the forefront to permit the river's waters to be used more efficiently for a growing popu- - 18 lation. California's population is estimated to swell by nearly 16 million people (from 35 million to almost 48 million) by 2020. With the population centers of Nevada and Arizona predicted to double over the next 25 years, the Lower Basin may find itself without adequate water supplies unless changes are made in the use and distribution of water. I Over 75 years have passed since the Colorado River basin states began dividing use of its water, but numerous controversies continue. Now. as always, those who use and depend on the river for survival must wonder at times what will be the fate of their Colorado River water supply. Changes in the division of the Colorado River may mean long-awaited benefits for certain parties. American Indian tribes with claims to hundreds of thousands of acre-feet of water (to be used for irrigation and municipal purposes) may obtain the opportunity to lease their rights - creating a new and profitable water market. Other changes in federal policy further intensify the reality of finite resources upon those in the Colorado River Basin. The Bureau has said its revised mission will shift its role from that of developing additional waler supplies through major federal projects to a role of improving the management of the water sources already developed. Some environmental groups. however. contend Ihat not enough is being done with river management as it pertains to endangered species. As federal and state officials, tribes, environmental- ists. recreational users and power providers grapple with these issues. it is interesting to remember that many innovative approaches to water management have been pioneered in the Colorado River Basin. The Colorado River Compact marked the first time that more than two or three states negotiated an interstate agreement to seWe their differences. The Colorado was also the first drainage basin where the multiple use of water projects was planned. Major projects on the river were designed for municipal and industrial water supply. power development. irrigation, flood control and recreation. And in some instances, mitigation for the loss of environmental resources has been taken (i.e. national wildlife refuges, backwater habitats). Despite continuing efforts at consensus on Colorado River issues. it appears Ihat as long as people choose to live in the seven basin slates and neighboring Mexico, controversies over the use and management of the river's water will persist.