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<br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />Fi~un: 3. ;".;orthwcst StJ.1CS' Pot:l.to I'n1Jw.:til1n--Averagl' Cwt. Per Acre <br /> <br />r- <br />I E:xisting Jnd Fon:cJst Potato Production <br />ForccJst HJscd on SnHlothcd 1)3U l.inear Timl' Trend <br /> <br /> 650 <br /> 625 <br />" <br />~ <br />" 600 <br /><l: <br />~ 575 <br />" <br />Q. <br /> 550 <br />~ 525 <br /><.> <br />" 500 <br />Cl <br />'" <br />~ 475 <br />" <br />> <br /><l: 450 <br /> 425 <br /> 400 d <br /> 375 <br /> <br /> 650 <br /> 625 <br /> 600 <br /> 575 " <br /> ~ <br /> " <br /> 550 <l: <br /> ~ <br /> 525 " <br /> Q. <br /> - 500 - <br /> ~ <br /> 475 <.> <br /> " <br />t-- - 450 Cl <br /> '" <br /> ~ <br />-- - 425 " <br />> <br /> 400 <l: <br /> 375 <br /> <br /> <br />r::J Actual Cwt.lAcre <br />D Smoothed Data <br />~ Trend+Forecast <br /> <br />- . <br /> <br />~ -H <br /> <br />-:--+- <br /> <br />--+------- <br /> <br />19701972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 '998 2000 2002 <br />1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 19831985198719891991 19931995199719992001 <br /> <br />Year <br /> <br />Observations. <br /> <br />The amount of production per acre has increased rapidly dunng the 1970-1997 period. shifting from about 380 <br />Cwl.!acre to 590 Cwtlacre. This represents about a 16% average annual rale of growth (AARG). <br /> <br />Dunng the past ten years, the rate of growth has been about 7% AARG <br /> <br />Production Forecast- <br /> <br />The above forecast model suggests that Cwt.lacre will increase to about 622 by 2002. based on a linear trend of the <br />smoothed data This would represent about a 8% Increase above 1994-1996 production levels. <br /> <br />Because of the existing production variability and precision agriculture management improvements, future (average) <br />production per acre is expected to increase in the near-term <br /> <br />Primary Data Source: NASS and OR-WA State Dept. of Agnculture: WA State Potato Commission; proprietary data <br />from selected producers: forecast analysis from the PaCific Northwest Project <br />