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e. Scenario F used historic diversions for absolute water rights, some modification to conditional water rights as considered in other scenarios but still based upon "contem- plated draft", Taylor Park Reservoir with the 86CW203 decree as it was used in Scenario E and generally all other assump- tions the same as Scenario E except a change in the Redlands Canal Power Diversions and City of Gunnison municipal rights. This resulted in a firm yield to union Park Reservoir from 101,000 to 127,000 acre feet per year. 158. In its Scenarios Band E, Applicant improperly modeled the irrigation rights based only on the historic depletion amount rather than the total historic or decreed diversions which would result in a senior call on the Union Park Project. This results in an overestimation of yield. Furthermore, Applicant failed to model any absolute water rights below the confluence of Ohio Creek and the Gunnison River and failed to model historic absolute water rights based on priority administration within the Gunnison River Basin, assuming instead that historic operations reflected priority administration. The evidence established that there have histori- cally been shortages to existing absolute rights in the Gunnison River Basin which have not resulted in the curtailment or junior water rights. . 159. In fact, the Upper Basin has not been intensively anministered by the Division Engineer in the past, in part because of cooperative efforts by neighboring ranchers, and also based on agreements (such as the 1975 Exchange Agreement regarding releases from Taylor Park Reservoir), which sought to maximize the benefi- cial use of scarce water resources. Furtheri records of historic diversions reflect only the water being diverted under absolute decrees, and modelling based on said records alone fails to reflect the impact of existing conditional rights which are being diligent- ly developed to utilize additional water. 160. Prior to the operation of Blue Mesa Reservoir, the Uncompahgre Valley Water Users Association called its water rights for the direct flow decree for the Gunnison Tunnel which caused water rights upstream in the Gunnison River Basin to be adminis- tered. Since the operation of Blue Mesa Reservoir, rigorous administration has not been necessary owing in large part to the way in which Blue Mesa Reservoir was operated. However, rigorous administration can be expected in the future with increased water development and rigorous administration is a reasonable assumption in determining the water available to the Union Park Project. 16~. In each of its scenarios in which Applicant found water to be available for appropriation, Applicant assumed that the uni ted States would not be allowed to continue to operate the Aspinall Unit for flood control as it currently does. Specifical- ly, Applicant asserts that, once its project is complete, the Bureau will not need to continue its current practice of drawing Blue Mesa down in the winter months to make room in the reservoir to store the spring runoff. Applicant's reason is that the depletions from its project will provide flood control by obviating 61