Weather Mod Critical Issues Report

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- I I I I I I I I I ,. I I I I I I I I I 1. Executive Summary The Weather Modification Association (WMA) is an association of scientists, engineers, economists, water management professionals, government and private business people, and others who have spent and continue to spend their careers working in the field of weather modification. The members, having read the National Research Council's report "Critical Issues in Weather Modification Research", issued last October 13, have helped prepare this response to that report. The NRC panel was asked to identify critical uncertainties limiting advances in weather modification science and operations and to identify future directions in weather modification research and operations for improving the management of water resources and the reduction in severe weather hazards, among other things, They were to do this even though the panel members collectively had very limited experience or knowledge in weather modification operations, especially in recent years. This current panel was organized to prepare a WMA response to the NRC report concerning issues having operational impact or scientific consequences on operational projects and to provide additional information to the members of the WMA and the public. The national press seized on the conclusion of the NRC panel that there was no convincing scientific proof that cloud seeding worked, not realizing that the panel had opted for a definition of scientific proof that few atmospheric problems could satisfy. On the other hand, the NRC panel concluded, "there is ample evidence that inadvertent weather and global climate modification (e.g., Greenhouse gases affecting global temperatures and anthropogenic aerosols affecting cloud properties) is a reality". We think, however, that global climate change and inadvertent weather modification would both fail the level of proof applied to planned weather modification. We nevertheless strongly support the NRC's recommendation to establish critical randomized, statistical experiments along with the necessary physical measurements and modeling support to reduce the many uncertainties that exist in the science of weather modification. In addition, the NRC panel cited a much earlier NRC report (NRC, 1964) which suggested that the initiation of large-scale operational weather modification would be premature. We think that it is inappropriate for a national academy panel, with very limited operational weather modification experience, to make such a judgment. Citation of the very dated 1964 report suggests that little has changed since that time. The NRC panel notes operational programs in 24 countries and at least 66 large-scale operational weather modification programs in the V.S, The WMA believes large-scale operational programs have produced and continue to produce positive effects for society. The WMA does not agree with the NRC suggestion that implementation oflarge-scale operational programs would be premature. This response details the myriad changes and advances that have been made, but that were largely neglected by the current NRC report. This WMA panel has added information on hail suppression, winter orographic cloud seeding, summer operational programs, and numerical modeling of cloud seeding effects to fill in for obvious gaps and weaknesses in the NRC report. A few other topics are also commented upon. 3