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of Habitat Availability Section(page 62), we estimate that a habitat forming event likely <br /> occurred historically approximately every six-to-eight years, and the population would remain <br /> stable with a flood event(i.e., little to no habitat available during that year) occurring every four- <br /> to-eight years. Therefore, a 12 year period is long enough for several habitat forming events and <br /> a stationary population over time, albeit with fluctuations within that period as habitat forms and <br /> degrades. <br /> Stepping down the habitat goal: <br /> We recognize that the amount of habitat in specific areas will need to be stepped down further to <br /> provide local managers with goals specific to their area. We encourage managers within and <br /> between regions to start a dialogue to determine how much habitat each area can reasonably <br /> provide. We recognize that habitat is closely tied to population abundance, so areas with more <br /> habitat can be expected to support a larger percentage of the population. <br /> Approach to the habitat criterion: <br /> We used a model-based approach to determine the amount of breeding habitat necessary for a <br /> stable or increasing population in each region of the breeding range with a 95 percent confidence <br /> interval (i.e. less than 5 percent risk of extinction over the next 50 years). We used the best <br /> available information at the time of writing (2015) as input parameters for the model for life <br /> history traits(e.g.,juvenile and adult survival). Since we recognize that efforts to estimate the <br /> population may not be accurate (Shaffer et al. 2013), we included observation error in the model. <br /> As additional research is conducted and better information becomes available,the model can be <br /> updated in the future and the amount of habitat required for recovery may change accordingly. <br /> The Northern Great Plains Piping Plover Recovery Team will evaluate new information and <br /> update the model as they deem appropriate. The model is described in detail in Appendix 1B. <br /> Habitat needed per breeding pair: <br /> As discussed in the Habitat Acreage Requirements section(page 25)and in Appendix 1 B, <br /> modeling has found that 0.5 -0.67 ha(1.2-1.7 ac) is needed per breeding pair. From the <br /> information currently available, habitat should be available to support a density of no greater <br /> than 1.5-2 pairs/ha(0.58-0.61 pairs/acre)during each breeding season over the long term. So for <br /> each pair, 0.5-0.67 ha(1.2-1.7 acres)would be needed. Using the higher end of this range, 0.67 <br /> ha per pair should account for the fact that not all habitat identified remotely(the only feasible <br /> way of quantifying amount of habitat rangewide) will actually be suitable for piping plover <br /> breeding and foraging(see Prindiville-Gaines and Ryan 1988 and Anteau et al. 2012 for <br /> descriptions of piping plover habitat). <br /> Frequency of habitat availability: <br /> There are no historical data about annual habitat availability throughout the range. Therefore,we <br /> used proxy measures to estimate how often habitat would have been historically available. We <br /> 66 <br /> VOLUME!::Draft Revised Recovery Plan for the Breeding Range of the Northern Great Plains Piping Plover(Charadrius <br /> melodus) <br />