Draft Revised Recovery Plan for the Breeding Range of the Northern Great Plains Piping Plover

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PART II. RECOVERY A. Breeding Recovery Criteria for the Northern Great Plains Population All of the recovery criteria for the Northern Great Plains population of the piping plover can be found in the Executive Summary section. Here, we only present those recovery criteria that relate to the breeding grounds. Criterion 1: Using the most current estimates of region-specific breeding population and population growth (X),the NGP plover population model indicates that the upper 95 percent confidence limit on the probability of a regional population going extinct within the next 50 years is < 0.05. This criterion is satisfied for all four regions (Figure 3). In addition, the following are met: 1. for every region, population growth is stable or increasing (>_ 1.0) over a 10-year average, and is projected to remain steady or increasing over the next 50 years, and 2. the population will be distributed so that at least 15 percent of the population is in each of the following regions: a. Southern Rivers (Missouri River system from Fort Randall Dam, South Dakota to Ponca, Nebraska, the Niobrara River, the Loup River system and the Platte River system) b. Northern Rivers (Missouri River system from Fort Peck Lake, Montana to Pierre, South Dakota) c. U.S. Alkaline Lakes d. Prairie Canada (see discussion on page 60) Purpose: 1) To demonstrate that the breeding population is viable and projected to remain viable into the foreseeable future; and 2) to ensure that the breeding population is distributed across the range so that a catastrophic regional event does not negatively impact the entire population. In order for recovery to be achieved, the breeding population should have been stable or increasing over a ten-year average (this time period can begin prior to the finalization of the recovery plan) and be projected to be stable or increasing into the reasonably foreseeable future. The population should be broadly distributed to reduce the risk of loss of a significant portion of the population. It is important for the population to be distributed throughout the range to maximize viability into the future and to reduce the risk of a stochastic event impacting a large proportion of the population. During the 2001 and the 2006 International Census(Elliott-Smith 63 VOLUME!:Draft Revised Recovery Plan for the Breeding Range of the Northern Great Plains Piping Plover(Charadrius melodus)