ARCA 2015 Annual Meeting Exhibits

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14 Aa The Economic Importance of Water in Kansas Figure 2 summarizes the estimated GSP losses by study area arising from GMD3's constrained water scenario in CY2062. This suggests that in percentage terms, Area 3 could lose 52.2%of GSP in CY2062 as a result of GMD3's estimated reduction in water availability. However,the hardest hit area in percentage terms could be Area 2. This latter area consists of 5 counties—Greeley, Lane,Scott,Wallace,and Wichita. Area 2's estimated $1.4 billion loss in GSP in CY2062 due to GMD3's reduced water availability scenario equates to a 66.2% loss in the area's GSP in that year. Figure 2: Estimated GSP Losses by Area in CY2062 Area 1 ®1.11111.111111 38.0% Area 2 66.2% Area 3 52.2% Area 4 9.3% Area 5 9.5% Area 6 0.0% Area 7 0.0% All 7 Areas 10.1% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Source:Apparet Analytics Table 4 estimates the total statewide GSP losses at a sectoral level in the State of Kansas, compared to a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario in which water availability is unconstrained. The GSP estimates encompass direct, indirect, and induced losses. The sectors are categorized according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).11 An explanation of the categories of business activity included within each NAICS sector is provided in Appendix A. Two private sector establishment categories are each estimated to contribute over$3 billion less to GSP (2015 $) in the State of Kansas if the best available regional data provided for CY2062 holds true. These sectors are Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting; and Real Estate and Rental. Five additional public 11 NAICS is the standard used by Federal statistical agencies to classify business establishments for the purpose of collecting, analyzing,and publishing statistical data related to the U.S.business economy. 9 Apparet Analytics 2015