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14 <br /> Aa The Economic Importance of Water in Kansas <br /> INTRODUCTION <br /> In May 2014, Governor Sam Brownback placed more than half of all counties in the State of Kansas in an <br /> emergency drought status.4 The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) also acknowledges that water demand <br /> often outstrips availability in the State of Kansas.' This is due in large part to the extensive development <br /> of groundwater for irrigation water use. There's also been a steady decline in the High Plains Aquifer-a <br /> key water source for farmers in Western Kansas; and aquifers beneath many areas of central Kansas <br /> contain water that is too salty for domestic and agricultural usage. <br /> Kansas' water availability could significantly impact the future economic development and prosperity of <br /> the State; and a Vision for the Future of Water in Kansas has gathered stakeholder input from farmer, <br /> ranchers, municipalities,and other water users to form a comprehensive, 50-year vision for water. <br /> The purpose of this initial study is to estimate the extent to which the State of Kansas economy could be <br /> impacted by a reduction in water availability in calendar year(CY) 2062. <br /> Using data supplied by the Southwest Kansas Groundwater Management District No. 3 (GMD3), the <br /> current study compares the projected size of the economy in CY2062 if water is freely available with a <br /> scenario in which the total level of water availability is constrained within seven areas of the State of <br /> Kansas. These seven areas represent 63 counties,and have been identified for analysis by GMD3. Five of <br /> the seven areas are estimated by GMD3 to experience a water deficit by CY2062, primarily based on the <br /> depletion of groundwater supplies and silting. The other two areas are estimated to experience a <br /> reduction in water availability post-2062. No assumptions are made about the impact of climatic <br /> conditions on water availability(including droughts)within the analysis. <br /> Using a modified IMPLAN input-output model in conjunction with trend (10-year average BEA sector- <br /> specific)growth projections for the State of Kansas,economic impacts are estimated based on: <br /> • The reduced availability of water in Areas 1-5 in CY2062; <br /> • The non-substitutability of water to compensate for the loss; and <br /> • The non-adaptation of producers and consumers. <br /> The results are intended as a preliminary assessment of the economic importance of water in the State, <br /> and as such could be used in subsequent research, commissioned separate to this current study — for <br /> example, a partial net economic analysis of the development of a new aqueduct project in Kansas,taking <br /> into account the construction, operational and economic development benefits, alongside a thorough <br /> analysis of the costs and financing mechanism(s). <br /> 4 Source:Kansas Office of the Governor,(2014). Governor Sam Brownback Updates Drought Emergency, Warnings and Watches <br /> in Kansas Counties,May 21,2014,available at: <br /> http://www.kwo.org/reports_publications/Drought/Governor%20Updates%20Drought%20Status%201ssues%20Executive%200 <br /> rder%20May%202014.pdf <br /> 5 Source: USGS(date unknown). U.S.Geological Survey Programs in Kansas,available at:http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/FS-017-96/fs- <br /> 017-96.pdf <br /> 1 <br /> Apparet Analytics LLC 2015 <br />