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13 <br />STEP O1-- SPECIFICATIONS FOR RANGE OF FUTURE CONDITIONS <br />Baseline Future Conditions <br />In the assessment process, the adequacy of current (1975) <br />supplies relative to assumed future - condition estimates of use and the <br />severity and urgency of problems resulting from an imbalance of <br />supply versus use will be evaluated within a framework of consistent <br />assumptions, which are described below. <br />Current (1975) supplies comprise those supplies that are now <br />available for use or will become available for use through facilities and <br />programs that are authorized and funded by the end of FY 1975. <br />The set of baseline assumptions used in the 1975 Assessment <br />will include those used to develop the "1972 OBERS Projections - <br />Regional Economic Activity in the U.S. " This report contains the first <br />of two sets of projections on population and economic activity. The first <br />set is based upon the Bureau of Census "C" series population growth <br />rate assumption which could result in 400 million people by 2020. The <br />second set to be available later this year will be based upon "E" series <br />growth rates which could result in 300 million people by 2020. These <br />projections (report stock number 5245 -0012) are available from the <br />Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, <br />Washington, D. C. 20402 at a cost of $15. 50. <br />The assumptions stated in the OBERS report are quoted as <br />follows: <br />" The OBERS projections are based on longrun or <br />secular trends and ignore the cyclical fluctuations <br />which characterize the shortrun path of the economy. <br />The general assumptions that underlie the projections <br />are as follows: <br />"(1) Growth of population will be conditioned <br />by a decline of fertilitv rates from those of the 1962- <br />1965 period. <br />"(2) Nationally, reasonably full employment, <br />represented by a 4 percent unemployment rate, will <br />prevail at the points for which projections are made; <br />as in the past, unemployment will be disproportionately <br />distributed regionally, but the extent of disproportionality <br />will-diminish. <br />