|
on twentieth - century climate variability. This review
<br />of the paleoclimatic data for Great Plains drought over
<br />the past 2000 years provides a number of lines of evi-
<br />dence that support our conclusion that twentieth -
<br />century variability is just a subset of the total climatic
<br />variability that can be expected to occur under-natu-
<br />rally occurring climatic conditions. We need to gain
<br />an understanding of the processes behind the bigger,
<br />longer droughts of the last 2000 years. Equally impor-
<br />tant, we have to make sure our predictive models are
<br />capable of simulating these processes and the full
<br />range of drought variability. This will require addi-
<br />tional paleoclimatic data to map out the exact time —
<br />space character of past droughts and associated Pacific
<br />and Atlantic influences, and to test the ability of mod-
<br />els to simulate the full range of potential drought.
<br />Acknowledgments. We thank H. Diaz, C. Mock, R. Pulwarty,
<br />and two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments;
<br />J. Mangan for graphics; and K. Laird, P. Brown, and H. Grissino-
<br />Mayer for data contributions. Funding was provided by the NOAA
<br />Office of Global Programs, the National Research Council, and
<br />NASA.
<br />References
<br />Anderson, R. Y., 1992: Possible connection between surface
<br />winds, solar activity, and the Earth's magnetic field. Nature,
<br />358,51-53.
<br />Bark, L. D., 1978: History of American drought. North American
<br />Droughts, N. J. Rosenberg, Ed., Westview Press, 9 -23.
<br />Bamston, A. G., and R. E. Livesey, 1987: Classification, season-
<br />ality, and persistence of low- frequency atmospheric circula-
<br />tion patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1083 -1126.
<br />Barr, T. N., 1981: The work food situation and global grain pros-
<br />pects. Science, 214,1087-1095.
<br />Barry, R. G., and R. J. Chorley, 1987: Atmosphere, Weather, an
<br />Climate. 5th ed. Methuen, 460 pp.
<br />Blasing, T. J., and D. N. Duvick, 1984: Reconstruction of precipi-
<br />tation
<br />history in North American corn belt using tree rings
<br />Nature, 307, 143 -145.
<br />—, D. W. Stahle, and D. N. Duvick, 1988: Tree ring -based re
<br />construction of annual precipitation in the south - central U.S
<br />from 1750 -1980. Water Resour. Bull., 24, 163 -171.
<br />Borchert, J. R., 1950:-The climate of the central North America
<br />grassland. Ann. Assoc. Amer. Geogr., 40, 1 -39.
<br />—, 1971: The dust bowl in the 1970s. Ann. Assoc. Ame
<br />Geogr., 61, 1 -22.
<br />Bowden, M. J., R. W. Kates, P. A. Kay, W. E. Riebsame, R.
<br />Warrick, D. L. Johnson, H. A. Gould, and D. Weiner, 198
<br />The effect of climate fluctuations on human population
<br />Two hypotheses. Climate and History: Studies in Past Cl
<br />mates and Their Impacts on Man, T. M. L. Wrigley, M.
<br />Ingram, and G. Farmer, Eds., Cambridge University Pres
<br />479 -513.
<br />Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
<br />Bradley, R. S., 1976: Precipitation History of the Rocky Moun=
<br />tain States. Westview Press, 334 pp.
<br />Brice, J. C., 1966: Erosion and deposition in the loess- mantled
<br />Great Plains, Medicine Creek drainage basin, Nebraska. U.S.
<br />Geological Survey Professional Paper 352 -H, 339 pp. [Avail-
<br />able from USGS Information Services, Box 25286, Denver
<br />Federal Center, Denver, CO 80225.1
<br />Bryson, R. A., 1966: Air masses, streamlines, and the boreal for-
<br />est. Geogr. Bull., 8,228-269.
<br />-, and F. K. Hare, 1974: The Climates of North America. Vol.
<br />II, World Survey of Climate, Elsevier, 420 pp.
<br />—, and T. J. Murray, 1977: Climates of Hunger. University of
<br />Wisconsin Press, 171 pp.
<br />—, D. A. Baerreis, and W. M. Wendland,1970: The character
<br />of late - glacial and post - glacial climatic. changes._ Pleistocene
<br />and Recent Environments of the Central Great Plains, W. Dort
<br />and J. K. Jones, Eds., University Press of Kansas, 53 -74.
<br />Bunkers, M. J., J. R. Miller Jr., and A. T. DeGaetano, 1996: An
<br />examination of El Niiio- LaNiiia- related precipitation and tem-
<br />perature anomalies across the northern plains. J. Climate, 9,
<br />147 -160.
<br />Charney, J. G., 1975: Dynamics of deserts and drought in the
<br />Sahel. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 101, 193 -202.
<br />Cleaveland, M. K., and D. N. Duvick, 1992: Iowa climate recon-
<br />structed from tree rings, 1640 -1982. Water Resour. Res., 28,
<br />2607 -2615.
<br />Cole, J. E., and E. R. Cook, 1998: Decadal changes in the rela-
<br />tionship between El Nino /Southern Oscillation variability and
<br />moisture balance in the continental United States. Geophys.
<br />Res. Lett., in press.
<br />Cook, E. R., D. M. Meko, D. W. Stahle, and M. K. Cleaveland,
<br />1996: Tree -ring reconstructions of past drought across the co-
<br />terminous United States: Tests of a regression method and cali-
<br />bration/verification results. Tree Rings, Environment, and Hu-
<br />manity, J. S. Dean, D. M. Meko, and T. W. Swetnam, Eds.,
<br />Radiocarbon, 155 -169.
<br />and -C. W. Stockton, 1997: A new assessment of pos-
<br />sible solar and lunar forcing of the bidecadal drought rhythm
<br />in the western United States. J. Climate, 10, 1343 -1356.
<br />, D. W. Stahle, and M. K. Cleaveland, cited 1998;
<br />NOAA NESDIS drought variability. [Available online at
<br />d http: / /www.ngdc .noaa.gov /paleo /drought.html.]
<br />Currie, R. G., 1981: Evidence for 18.6 year MN signal in tempera-
<br />ture and drought conditions in North America since A.D. 1800.
<br />J. Geophys: Res., 86,11055-11064.
<br />—, 1984a: Evidence for 18.6 year lunar nodal drought in west-
<br />ern North American during the past millennium. J. Geophys.
<br />Res., 89,1295-1308.
<br />—, 1984b: Periodic (18.6 -year) and cyclic (11 -year) induced
<br />n drought and flood in western North America. J. Geophys. Res.,
<br />89,7215-7230.
<br />r. D'Arrigo, R. D., and G. C. Jacoby, 1991: A 1000 -year record of
<br />winter precipitation from northwestern New Mexico, USA: A
<br />A. reconstruction from tree -rings and its relationship to El Nino
<br />1: and the Southern Oscillation. Holocene, 1, 95 -101. ?t.
<br />s: —, and --, 1992: A tree -ring reconstruction of New Mexico
<br />i_ winter precipitation and its relation to El Nino /Southern Os-
<br />J, cillation events. El Nino: Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects
<br />S, of the Southern Oscillation, H. F. Diaz and V. Markgraf, Eds.,
<br />Cambridge University Press, 243 -257.
<br />2711
<br />
|