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NPPD serves approximately 350 cities, towns, and other power districts representing about <br />760,000 residents of the state of Nebraska. NPPD's Project No. 1835, a baseload <br />hydroelectric facility, is part of the electric utility system used to supply this power. Under <br />the terms of a contract with Central, the operation of Project No. 1835 is coordinated with <br />Central's Project No. 1417. Under power sales agreements between the two districts, <br />Central sells all the power produced at the Project No. 1417 powerplants to NPPD at <br />wholesale. <br />NPPD periodically completes a comprehensive 30 -year forecast of future power demands <br />and energy use. NPPD uses econometric models to estimate the number of customers, <br />energy use, and peak demand. The most recent forecast is entitled "Summary Report of the <br />Nebraska Public Power District Load Forecast 1993 - 2030." NPPD files the forecast with <br />the Nebraska Power Review Board and the Mid - Continent Area Power Pool. <br />NPPD forecasts summer peak demand to grow from 1,810 MW for 1993 to 2,636 MW in <br />2023, an annual growth rate of 1.26 percent. Existing demand -side management programs <br />are included in the forecast. In addition to this base forecast, NPPD examines demand <br />growth under variable economic and weather scenarios (Table 1 -1). <br />Table 1 -1. NPPD 1993 -2023 local forecast (source: NPPD, Summary Report of the <br />Nebraska Public Power District Load Forecast 1993 -2023, October 26, 1993). <br />Low <br />Base <br />High <br />Parameter <br />Forecast <br />Forecast <br />Forecast <br />Residential customers (% growth per year) <br />0.16 <br />0.25 <br />0.35 <br />Commercial customers (% growth per year) <br />0.35 <br />0.61 <br />0.90 <br />Public authority customers (% growth per year) <br />(0.23) <br />(0.19) <br />(0.15) <br />Annual energy (% growth per year) <br />0.79 <br />1.47 <br />2.07 <br />1993 load factor ( %) <br />- <br />52.1 <br />- <br />2023 load factor ( %) <br />55.4 <br />55.5 <br />58.6 <br />Summer peak demand (% growth per year) <br />0.89 <br />1.26 <br />1.66 <br />Winter peak demand (% growth per year) <br />1.04 <br />1.54 <br />2.04 <br />As shown in Table 1 -1, the system load factor is anticipated to rise over the forecast period. <br />While winter peak demand is forecasted to grow more rapidly than the summer peak, the <br />summer peak remains higher than the winter peak throughout the forecast period (2,636 <br />MW summer versus 2,169 MW winter in 2023). NPPD estimates that additional capacity <br />will be needed in approximately the year 2008.1' In the absence of the projects, this date <br />would be advanced about 4 years. <br />1/ Nebraska Public Power District's Response to the Commission Staff's December 19, 1994 Additional <br />Information Request, January 19, 1995. <br />1 -7 <br />