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The Feasibility of Operational Cloud Seeding in the North Platte River Basin Headwaters to increase Mountain Snowfall
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The Feasibility of Operational Cloud Seeding in the North Platte River Basin Headwaters to increase Mountain Snowfall
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Last modified
3/5/2013 4:20:28 PM
Creation date
2/25/2013 4:12:57 PM
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Water Supply Protection
Description
related to the Platte River Endangered Species Partnership (aka Platte River Recovery Implementation Program or PRRIP)
State
WY
CO
Basin
North Platte
Water Division
6
Date
5/1/2000
Author
Jonnie G. Medina, Technical Service Center, Water Resources Services, River Stystems and Meteorology, Denver, CO
Title
The feasibility of Operational Cloud Seeding in the North Platte River Basin Headwaters to Increase Mountain Snowfall
Water Supply Pro - Doc Type
Report/Study
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1 <br />1 <br />A <br />11 <br />G <br />1. INTRODUCTION <br />1.1. General Discussion <br />This document presents a proposed plan for the conduct of an operational cloud seeding project aimed at <br />increasing winter precipitation (snowfall) in the high elevation headwaters area of the North Platte River <br />Basin (hereafter Headwaters Region). The scientific basis lies largely in the increase in information on <br />the treatment of winter orographic (mountain barrier induced) clouds in the western United States in the <br />past 20 years. Studies were sponsored /conducted by the United States Bureau of Reclamation <br />(Reclamation), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for <br />Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Colorado State University, Desert Research Institute of the University of <br />Nevada at Reno, University of Wyoming and others. Cloud studies and seeding projects of particular <br />interest here were conducted at the Headwaters Region, the Grand Mesa of west - central Colorado, the <br />Wasatch Mountains of Utah, the Sierras of California, the Bridger Range of Montana, and the Colorado <br />central mountains (projects are described and discussed in appendix A, sections 7 and 8). These studies <br />conducted many seeding trials to determine cloud responses to treatment. The projects also studied <br />natural cloud processes. The diversity of study areas and weather conditions provided data for analysis <br />covering a broad spectrum of conditions, thus broadening the knowledge base and understanding of cloud <br />precipitation processes and treatment possibilities. Results from these recent projects provide the <br />scientific basis and methodology for the proposed cloud seeding program presented here. <br />There is support for cloud seeding from professional organizations. The current policy statement of the <br />American Meteorological Society (AMS) on the status of precipitation increase from supercooled <br />orographic clouds states, "There is statistical evidence that precipitation from supercooled orographic <br />clouds has been seasonally increased by about 10 %" (adopted by the AMS Council 2 October 1998, <br />Bulletin of the AMS, 72, 57). Stated elsewhere in the policy statement is, "Whereas a statistical <br />evaluation is required to establish that a significant change resulted from a given seeding activity, it must <br />be accompanied by a physical evaluation to confirm that the statistically observed change was due to the <br />seeding." Clearly, the AMS feels that physical measurements and their analysis are an important part of <br />the evaluation of planned weather modification. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) <br />statement notes that, "In our present state of knowledge, it is considered that the glaciogenic seeding of <br />clouds or cloud systems either formed, or stimulated in development, by air flowing over mountains <br />offers the best prospects for increasing precipitation in an economically viable manner." The AMS and <br />WMO policy statements were prepared by panels of experts. <br />The proposed cloud seeding program has some scientific hurdles to overcome. Most prominent is <br />determining how to best apply the technology to the geographic, and winter weather and cloud conditions <br />of the Headwaters Region. For success, the proposed program must apply state -of -the -art science and <br />technology in conducting the cloud seeding, and executing a proper evaluation of results. Many <br />operational cloud seeding projects seeking additional precipitation seem to eventually become embroiled <br />in controversy as to their accomplishments. Their major problem centers on the inability to determine in. <br />a convincing fashion the seeding effects on precipitation. They suffer from inadequate evaluation design, <br />data collection, and proper analysis. Most cloud seeding projects will eventually need to provide results <br />that can withstand scrutiny from the scientific community. The large area and diversity of the <br />Headwaters Region suggest the proposed project must include a thorough and credible evaluation <br />component that includes statistical evaluation, and selected physical measurements that confirm the <br />seeding of clouds. Prior projects have had great difficulty in ascertaining that clouds actually received <br />treatment. Generally, operational seeding projects attempt to seed all potential cases to maximize results. <br />This approach has complicated (usually negates) determining natural cloud responses in lieu of seeding. <br />
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