Identification and Evaluation of Potential Thrid Party Impacts Related to the Habitat Component of the Proposed Platte River Recovery

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3.0 Definition of Baseline Condition Examining the individual bridge segments provides some additional insight. Commercial development acreage has decreased in five out of the twelve bridge segments and increased in the other six areas. Multi- dwelling residential development increased in all the bridge segments except Segment 1. The most significant increase in multi - dwelling development occurred in Segment 7, which realized an increase of 40 acres. For residential development with one dwelling, all bridge segments realized a decrease in acreage except Segment 10 and Segment 12. It is worth noting that the likely cause of a decrease in acreage for development is due to a difference in interpretation of land covers between the 1982 and 1998 land cover databases. For instance, the interpretation of residential development within the 1982 database tended to include more acreage within each individual residential polygon to account for grass areas. Interpretation of the 1998 land covers tended to be stricter in defining residential and commercial acreage. Therefore, the difference in acreage is likely to be influence by the difference in interpretation. What is important from this comparison is that development has not significantly increased over the last sixteen years within the floodplain of the study area where Program lands would likely be located. Additionally, of the development that has occurred it accounts for a very small percentage of the total area within the floodplain. Of the 103,100 acres within the study only 524 acres are considered developed or 1%. Hazen and Sawyer thus concluded that the Program would not likely displace further development opportunities. This is for two reasons. Overall, development has not significantly increased in the floodplain over the last 16 years. Additionally, even though development has increased in some areas the amount of development relative to total acreage in the floodplain is quite small (1%). Therefore, it is not likely that the Program would impact future development Program given the amount of area that could be available for development within each bridge segment and the relatively small area that will be protected for habitat. In other words, individuals wanting to develop a site that has been protected for wildlife could simply develop a substitute site available somewhere within the local area. The central Platte region has traditionally been a relatively stable area with agriculture the dominant land use. This is supported by the development data provided by the GIS databases. While there are indications that development is increasing in parts of the study area, at this time it is not conclusive that this activity will significantly alter land use. Therefore, it is assumed that current land use conditions will continue over the study period. 3.3 Study Period The Third Party Impact Study will evaluate the impacts of protecting and managing 10,000 acres over a twenty -year study period from 2001 to 2020. This study period was based on assumptions regarding the schedule for protection, restoration and management of habitat lands. The schedule for habitat protection and management was adapted from the Preliminary Draft — Milestones for First Increment of Proposed Plane River Recovery Implementation Program, drafted by the FWS in October 1998. The assumptions made regarding the schedule were developed solely for the purpose of evaluating third party impacts and are as follows. Hwd:40210R012.doc 3 -5 Third Party Impact Study Final Report