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Executive Summary <br />haying and grazing will be used to manage some Program lands by 2011. The present value of <br />the change in total income over the twenty year period is expected be +$75,000. <br />Under all three scenarios, total (direct, indirect and induced) sales related to agricultural <br />production on Program lands are expected to fall over the study period relative to the baseline <br />condition. The present value of the change in sales over the twenty -year period is estimated to <br />be -$3.9 million under Scenario 1, -$5.5 million under Scenario 2 and -$2.1 million under <br />Scenario 3. <br />Table ES -1 <br />Economic Impact as the Program Affects Agricultural Production in Study Area <br />Relative to Baseline Condition <br />Present Value - 2001 to 2020 at 2.8% Discount Rate <br />Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 <br />Present Value of the Change in Total - $774,000 — $995,000 $75,000 <br />Income Relative to the Baseline <br />Condition <br />Present Value of the Change in Total -$3.9 million -$5.5 million -$2.1 million <br />Sales Relative to the Baseline <br />Condition <br />Note. Total income and total sales represent direct, indirect, and induced effects. <br />The Program is also expected to change agricultural employment. Under all -three scenarios, the <br />number of full-time and part-time jobs is expected to fall during the early part of the study period <br />when acreage is taken out of production and restored as habitat. Under Scenario 1, the loss in <br />jobs is expected to decrease by as much as 7 jobs by 2006. However, by 2011, after Program <br />lands are restored and some areas are managed using grazing and hay production, 2 to 3 fewer <br />jobs will exist in the local economy relative to the baseline condition. <br />The impact of the Program on agricultural employment is similar under Scenario 2. In this case, <br />the loss in jobs is expected to decrease by as much as 6 jobs by 2006. Again, under this scenario, <br />job losses are estimated to fall between 2 and 3 jobs in the later part of the study period. <br />Under Scenario 3, about 3 fewer jobs will exist in the study area economy in 2006 as a result of <br />the Program. However, unlike Scenario 1 and 2, employment is expected to increase by as much <br />as 3 jobs during the second half of the study period under Scenario 3. <br />Nwd.40210R009.doc ES -7 Third Patty Impact Study <br />Final Report <br />