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Chapter 4 <br />Historic and Projected Changes in Runoff <br />4 1 Natural and Anthropogenic Effects on Forests and <br />Water Yields <br />As discussed in Chapter 2, a change in the type or den- <br />sity of forest vegetation can alter the amount of runoff. <br />Changes in forest type and density can result from natu- <br />ral causes, such as succession; from climate variations; <br />from natural disturbances such as wildfires, windthrow, <br />and insect infestations; and from anthropogenic distur- <br />bances, such as logging, grazing, or prescribed fire. In <br />some cases it is difficult to separate anthropogenic and <br />natural disturbances, as fire suppression will facilitate <br />succession, and climatic changes may be due to both <br />anthropogenic factors and natural fluctuations. The goal <br />of this chapter is to discuss the effects of timber harvest, <br />fire, climate change, grazing, insect infestations and <br />other disturbances on forest cover and water yield. <br />The analysis of past, current, and projected effects of <br />forest management on water yield will focus on national <br />forest lands, as there is more information on past and <br />current management activities for these lands than for <br />private forestlands. From a water yield perspective, na- <br />tional forest lands are of primary concern because these <br />account for 49% of forest lands in Colorado (Figure <br />4.1) (DNR, 2002), and the majority of these lands are <br />in the higher elevation areas that generate most of the <br />state's runoff (Benson and Green, 1987). Another 19% <br />of the forests in Colorado are managed by the Bureau <br />of Land Management, but most of these forests are in <br />lower elevation areas with limited potential for altering <br />water yields. <br />Only 28% of the forested areas in Colorado are in private <br />ownership, with no major holdings by private timber <br />companies (DNR, 2002). The number of private land- <br />owners who have at least one acre of forested land has <br />increased from 46,300 in 1990 to an estimated 200,000 <br />in 2000 (DNR, 2002). This fragmentation of private <br />forest lands indicates that the majority of these parcels <br />Figure 4.1. Map of national forest lands in Colorado. <br />30 <br />Roosevelt <br />Routt <br />National <br />National <br />Forest <br />Forest <br />Arapaho <br />National <br />Forest <br />.White. River <br />National Forest <br />Grand Mesa <br />National Forest.. - <br />Pike: <br />National <br />Forest <br />Gunnison <br />National <br />Uncompahgre <br />Forest <br />National <br />Forest <br />San Isabel ^' <br />National <br />0 50 100 km <br />Forest <br />San Juan <br />Rio Grande <br />1 1 <br />National <br />National <br />0 25 50 miles <br />Forest <br />Forest <br />Figure 4.1. Map of national forest lands in Colorado. <br />30 <br />