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n the future, water management <br />challenges will be more complex <br />as population increases, demand <br />patterns shift, environmental needs <br />are better understood, and global <br />climate change and other effects <br />on the state's water resources and <br />systems become more evident. <br />Because we don't know with <br />certainty what will happen in the <br />future, Update 2005 includes three <br />plausible yet very different baseline <br />scenarios for 2030, rather than a <br />single "likely future." <br />These are not predictions and do not <br />include new water agency- sponsored <br />conservation programs or climate <br />change effects. They are possible <br />pictures of the future that depend on <br />many assumptions and offer three <br />water demand conditions for 2030. <br />2030 Water Demand Changes by Scenario <br />Changes by Region <br />M=M <br />p <br />C3 1'0. <br />r <br />These charts show how water demands <br />a <br />could change in average water years <br />North Coast -North Laho ran <br />°•S - <br />u_ <br />between 2000 and 2030 for three <br />U <br />o.o <br />scenarios by region (left); statewide by <br />Sacramento River <br />. <br />0 More I j <br />_0 <br />L <br />sector (immediate right); and statewide <br />Current Resource <br />Trends Less Intensive <br />plus groundwater overdraft (far right). <br />—■ <br />-°.5 . Resource <br />Intensive <br />South Coast <br />1.0 . <br />b <br />San <br />Cisco_ <br />San Joaquin River <br />Tulare Lake <br />These three scenarios include two kinds <br />of water use efficiency actions: those <br />Central <br />C) <br />that water users take on their own <br />Coast <br />—� <br />South Lahontan <br />(called naturally occurring conserva- <br />�a <br />U <br />(� <br />tion and those encouraged b water <br />I. 9 Y <br />V) <br />agency programs. Only naturally occur - <br />South coast <br />ring conservation was varied among <br />Colorado River <br />— <br />the scenarios; and all scenarios include <br />V) <br />the same continued implementation of <br />C) <br />cost - effective actions by water agencies. <br />m <br />