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Colorado Water Oct 2005
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Publications
Year
2005
Title
Colroado Water
Author
Water Center of Colorado State University
Description
October 2005 Issue
Publications - Doc Type
Newsletter
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CWRRI Editor's note: CWRRI funded three graduate student fellowships for 2005 - <br />2006. Each student has provided a summary of their project progress to date. <br />Hydrologic Analysis and Simulation of the Upper Colorado River System <br />Julia Keedy, Civil Engineering M.S. Candidate <br />Colorado State University <br />s expected, the focus of my research has <br />become more defined as it has pro- <br />gressed. In summary, the sensitivity of <br />the Colorado River system model to different <br />streamflow inputs will be determined. <br />Streamflow data sets will be compared such as <br />naturalized streamflow data extended backward <br />using stochastic correlation techniques, natural- <br />ized streamflows reconstructed from tree ring <br />records spanning from around 1500 to 1999 (the <br />reconstruction has not yet been completed), <br />and generated streamflows based on stochastic <br />techniques. For this purpose, parametric and <br />non - parametric methods will be applied. The <br />sensitivity of the streamflow data scenarios will <br />then be determined by comparing the response <br />of the system. Key parameters will be used to <br />characterize the response of the system. These <br />parameters include critical reservoir levels (such <br />as dead pool, minimum power pool, top of active <br />conservation, and spillway elevation), reservoir <br />releases, and shortage and surplus occurrences <br />for each state. The parameters will be compared <br />by determining their probabilities of occurrence <br />under each different streamflow scenarios. <br />Another objective of the study is to determine <br />the safe yield of the upper basin. This task will <br />be accomplished by increasing the demands <br />of the upper basin in order to achieve a given, <br />accepted probability of shortage occurrences. <br />While none of the streamflow data sets are quite <br />ready to be used in the model for the final results <br />of this study, currently available streamflows <br />have been used to run the model so analysis <br />techniques can be developed. <br />I spent last semester focusing on class work and <br />performing a preliminary literature review of <br />river system operations and performance indica- <br />tors. I took a stochastic modeling class which <br />was an introduction to various different methods <br />of hydrologic modeling focusing mainly on para- <br />metric techniques and touching on nonparamet- <br />ric techniques. It helped me to realize the neces- <br />sity of modeling streamflow and the challenges <br />that are encountered with any method. I also <br />took a water resources systems analysis class. It <br />provided an overview of different approaches to <br />modeling river systems and reservoir operations. <br />The class began with basic methods for model- <br />ing simple water systems which provided me <br />with a great appreciation for the capabilities of <br />RiverWare and an understanding of the basis on <br />which it was developed. <br />This summer, I was in Glenwood Springs work- <br />ing as an intern at the Colorado River Water <br />Conservation District, who is also sponsoring <br />my research. This was an amazing experience, <br />as I was given the opportunity to attend meet- <br />ings and conferences where I observed first hand <br />many of the issues that face Colorado River <br />users and managers. I was also able to make a <br />Keedy confers with David Merritt and Dave Kan- <br />ser at the CRWCD offices. <br />
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