Laserfiche WebLink
indicative of a general increase in flows. A constant slope or a decrease <br />in slope shows no change or an overall decrease in flows respectively. <br />RESULTS <br />The results of the analysis are shown on Figure 1. The dotted line is the <br />actual line obtained by accumulating the historic annual flow values. The <br />four straight lines, which are superimposed on sections of the dotted line, <br />show time periods of relatively constant slope of the historic data. <br />Figure 2 is a similar figure we reproduced from NDWR's July 18 report. <br />The actual slope and position of the straight lines shown on Figure 1 have <br />been refined by using a linear regression analysis of the historic data. <br />This type of analysis yields a "best -fit" line. As a measure of the fit we <br />have calculated the correlation coefficient for each line. The closer the <br />correlation coefficient is to 1, the better the fit, with 1 being a perfect <br />fit. The slopes and correlation coefficients for the selected time periods <br />are shown on the following table. <br />Slope <br />(1,000 AF /YR) <br />Correlation <br />REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF CUMULATIVE ANNUAL <br />GAGED FLOWS AT JULESBURG, CO. <br />1903 -23 1923 -56 1956 -82 1982 -86 <br />454 278 407 1173 <br />.99 .98 .99 ..92 <br />The correlation coefficients on the table show that the lines on Figure 1 <br />are almost a perfect fit. There is a significant positive slope change <br />from an average annual flow of 278 thousand acre -feet per year between the <br />- 2 - <br />