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Miguel River there is a USGS gage record of discharge on the creek. However, the gage station <br />is upstream from the LT. The USGS gage is SAN MIGUEL RIVER AT URAVAN, CO (USGS <br />09177000); it has a period of record (POR), of 42 years collected between 1953 and 2007. The <br />gale is at an elevation of 5,000 ft above mean sea level (amsl) and has a drainage area of 1499 <br />mi . The hydrograph (plot of discharge over time) produced from this gage includes the <br />consumptive uses of numerous diversions in the basin above the gage. However, the existence <br />of these diversions is not a major limitation upon the use of the data from the gage. To make the <br />measured data transferable to San Miguel River above the LT, the consumptive portions of these <br />diversions were added back to the measured hydrograph. The resulting "adjusted" hydrograph <br />could then be used on San Miguel River above the LT by multiplying the "adjusted" gage <br />discharge values by an area ratio; specifically, the area of San Miguel River above the LT <br />(1557.17 mi) to San Miguel River at Uravan (1499 mi) . Next, the resulting proportioned <br />"adjusted" hydrograph was itself "adjusted" (decreased) to reflect depletions on San Miguel <br />River above the LT resulting from upstream consumptive irrigation uses. The final hydrograph <br />thus represents a distribution of flow over time that has been reduced to reflect existing human <br />uses. <br />(The following discussion is based upon the US Geological Survey's Techniques of Water - <br />Resources Investigations Series, Book 4: Hydrologic Analysis and Interpretation, Chapter A3: <br />Statistical Methods in Water Resources (Chapter 3: Describing Uncertainty) by D.R. Helsel and <br />R. M. Hirsch. This technical reference provides the scientific background and guidance <br />important to the systematic interpretation of hydrologic data. The document is available online <br />and is a valuable aid to understanding and interpreting the analyses described here.) <br />The next step in producing a representation of the discharge at San Miguel River above LT is to <br />compute the Geometric Mean of the area- prorated "adjusted" data values from the San Miguel <br />River at Uravan hydrograph. This step is of value because of the inherent statistical weaknesses <br />found in any collection of data intended to measure natural stream discharge. Without getting <br />into the details of statistical theory, it is worth noting that a set of discharge measurements is <br />inherently inaccurate, no matter how well collected, due to the difficulties attendant to data <br />collection, especially hydrologic data. To give deference to this fact and to increase the value <br />of the hydrograph product of this analysis, the Geometric Means of the data were computed and <br />plotted along with the 95% Confidence Intervals about the data. The resultant hydrograph, <br />including recommended Instream Flow values, is displayed in Figure 1. <br />-8- <br />