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<br />Although the drought may be the most severe that has struck the West in the century that records have been kept, it is not
<br />nearly the worst the region has experienced. Scientists studying the records of climate and weather preserved in ancient
<br />tree rings, lake sediments, and fossil pollen have come to believe that the 20th century was unusually wet by long -term
<br />standards. If that's true, it means broadly held assumptions about the region's water supply, and its capacity to support
<br />farms and cities, are dangerously inaccurate.
<br />The drought of the 1930s lasted eight years, depopulated huge swaths of the Great Plains, and was the longest to strike
<br />North America in three centuries. But droughts lasting even longer — in some cases, for several decades at a time —
<br />have occurred repeatedly in the past 2,000 years, according to climate researchers. One such extended drought is
<br />believed responsible for the disappearance of the Anasazi, ancestors of modern Pueblo tribes, from the Four Corners area
<br />of Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico in the 13th century.
<br />"The occurrence of such sustained drought conditions today would be a natural disaster of a magnitude unprecedented in
<br />the 20th century," according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Paleochinatology Program.
<br />Chasing Water
<br />At Lake Powell, where the broad white bathtub ring on the tall red cliffs is among the most obvious signs of drought in
<br />the Colorado River watershed, the National Park Service has tried to put the best face on matters.
<br />"Fishing is great and getting better!" the agency cheerfully asserts in its latest report on lake conditions, presumably
<br />because the fish population is now squeezed into less than half its accustomed habitat.
<br />The Park Service — which manages the lake and Glen Canyon National National Recreation Area, a 1.3- million -acre
<br />expanse of canyons and plateaus surrounding the reservoir in Utah and Arizona — spent more than $2 million last year
<br />extending launch ramps and upgrading marina utilities to cope with the falling water level. In her latest annual report,
<br />Glen Canyon Superintendent Kitty L. Roberts estimated $2.8 million would be spent on similar work in 2004. (The
<br />entire budget for Glen Canyon National Recreation Area this year is $9.3 million.)
<br />Despite reassurances by the Park Service, and despite the fact that there's plenty of water for boats in most of the lake,
<br />tourism at Glen Canyon National Recreation Area has been dropping steadily since the drought's effects became
<br />noticeable, from 2.4 million visitors in 2001 to 2.1 million in 2002 and 1.9 million last year. Park managers attribute
<br />some of the decrease to the nationwide drop in travel after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, but they suspect
<br />widespread publicity about the falling water level at Lake Powell has contributed.
<br />A decline in Lake Powell recreation is bad news for the economy of Page, established in 1957 as a construction camp for
<br />the crews that built Glen Canyon Dam. Named for John Chatfield Page, commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of
<br />Reclamation from 1937 to 1943, the city of about 6,800 people now serves as headquarters of a lake - related tourism
<br />industry: motels, restaurants, gas stations, boat brokers, repair shops, guide services, boat rentals, fishing gear retailers.
<br />Lake - related tourism accounts for 69 percent of the jobs in Page, according to Joan Nevills - Staveley, executive director
<br />of the Page -Lake Powell Chamber of Commerce & Visitors Bureau.
<br />"Needless to say, if there were no Lake Powell, there would be no Page," Nevills - Staveley said. "It would be a very
<br />barren, very dismal scene."
<br />Higher - than - normal vacancy rates, which business owners blame on news about the drought, have prompted motels in
<br />Page to discount room rates as much as 25 percent this summer, according to the chamber.
<br />Although alarming to many, the accelerating contraction of Lake Powell is not bad news to everyone. In fact, many
<br />environmentalists and lovers of the rugged canyon country believe the only thing better than a smaller Lake Powell
<br />would be no Lake Powell at all.
<br />The Concrete Compromise
<br />Built and operated by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Glen Canyon Dam is a 10- million -ton plug of gracefully arched
<br />concrete wedged into a narrow canyon of Navajo sandstone. It is 710 feet tall from foundation to crest and backs up a
<br />reservoir that, when full, holds 26.2 million acre -feet. In the United States, only Hoover Dam is taller; only Hoover's
<br />reservoir, Lake Mead, is larger. (An acre -foot, 325,9000 gallons, is a year's supply for two average Southern California
<br />households.)
<br />8/27/2004
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