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Estimating the economic impacts of the critical habitat designations poses formidable <br />challenges because many impacts will result from future Section 7 consultations pursuant to <br />provisions of the Act. Such consultations between the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service <br />( USFWS) and other Federal agencies may identify reasonable and prudent alternatives to <br />destruction or adverse modification of critical habitat that allow projects to proceed without <br />significant economic impacts. The Recovery Implementation Program for Endangered Fish <br />Species in the Upper Colorado River Basin and the San Juan Recovery Implementation <br />Program (RIPs) have allowed some water development in the Upper Basin to proceed <br />concurrently with efforts to recover endangered fishes. Participants in these programs intend <br />for the RIPs also to provide reasonable and prudent alternatives to the destruction or <br />modification of critical habitat. <br />It is impossible, however, to predict the outcome of all future Section 7 Consultations <br />involving endangered fishes in the Colorado River Basin. If the RIPs do not show sufficient <br />and timely progress in recovering endangered fishes, some planned water developments may <br />be modified, scaled back, delayed, or foregone. This assumption provides an upper bound <br />on the potential magnitude of economic effects associated with the critical habitat <br />designations. If the RIPs are successful in achieving their objective, many of the negative <br />economic impacts described in this report can be avoided. <br />Utilizing projected economic growth data, economic activity levels were projected for the 20 <br />economic sectors. This assumed that no actions were taken to recover the endangered fishes <br />and formed the "without fish" scenario. Incorporating the changes in economic activity <br />necessary to recover the fishes led to a second set of economic projections — a "with fish" <br />scenario. The differences between the "without fish" and "with fish" scenarios formed the <br />net economic impacts of listing and critical habitat designation. A methodology developed <br />by the USFWS for distinguishing between listing and critical habitat actions under the Act <br />was applied to determine the incremental impacts of the critical habitat designation. <br />v <br />