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Deliverables: <br />8.1 Memorandum containing the results of the literature review. <br />8.2 Initial recommendation for an approach to a basin -wide estimate of water availability. <br />8.3 Technical memorandum documenting the selected approach for the basin -wide estimate <br />of water availability. <br />8.4 Ensembles of curtailment traces. <br />8.5 Technical memorandum describing the methods, analysis and results of the basin -wide <br />water availability analysis including a comparison of the statistics of the curtailment <br />traces to the historical hydrology <br />8.6 Summary of meeting with AG office. <br />Task 9: Preliminary Assessments of Phase I Water Availability <br />Objective: <br />The objective of Task 9 is to provide additional validation of Phase I activities through <br />presentation of a number of simulations that demonstrate water availability with Phase I water <br />demands and Phase I alternate hydrologic traces. <br />Background: <br />Tasks 6 through 8 will provide model input data corresponding to current water demands, <br />extended historical hydrology, alternate climate /forest change hydrology, and consideration of <br />the implications of the Colorado River compacts. Task 9 will provide a number of scenarios <br />with variations in model input parameters based on Task 6 through 8 results and formulate <br />summaries of model output data based on simulations of the scenario variations. <br />Approach: <br />9.1 Formulation of Modeling Scenarios - Based on review of the work completed in Tasks 6 <br />through 8, the CWCB and stakeholders will desire analysis of scenarios comprised of <br />variations of extended historical and alternate hydrology and compact considerations for <br />current demand. Formulate up to ten scenarios of current demands and extended <br />historical and alternate hydrology. Submit the scenarios to CWCB for review and <br />comment. Based on comments from CWCB, finalize ten scenarios. The cost estimate <br />assumes that only one review cycle will be required and that modifications will not be <br />substantial. <br />Colorado River Water Availability Study Scope 32 12/15/2009 <br />Exhibit Al.doc <br />