Laserfiche WebLink
4 The Emissions Scenarios of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) <br />Al. The Al storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population <br />that peaks in mid - century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. <br />Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social <br />interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The Al scenario family <br />develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three <br />Al groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non - fossil energy sources <br />(A 1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B) (where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular <br />energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end -use technologies). <br />A2. The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a <br />very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is <br />self - reliance and preservation of local identities. <br />Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, <br />which results in continuously increasing population. <br />Economic development is primarily regionally oriented <br />and per capita economic growth and technological <br />change more fragmented and slower than other <br />storylines. <br />B1. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a <br />convergent world with the same global population, that <br />peaks in mid - century and declines thereafter, as in the <br />Al storyline, but with rapid change in economic <br />structures toward a service and information economy, <br />with reductions in material intensity and the <br />introduction of clean and resource - efficient <br />technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to <br />economic, social and environmental sustainability, <br />including improved equity, but without additional <br />climate initiatives. <br />B2. The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a <br />world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to <br />economic, social and environmental <br />sustainability. It is a world with continuously <br />increasing global population, at a rate lower <br />than A2, intermediate levels of economic <br />development, and less rapid and more diverse <br />technological change than in the Al and B1 <br />storylines. While the scenario is also oriented <br />towards environmental protection and social <br />equity, it focuses on local and regional levels. <br />Source: <br />http://www.ipec.cb/ipecreports/tar/wg1/029.ht.m#storyg.l <br />other notes could include more detail on the scenarios, <br />potential common elements, and pulling out the major <br />framework elements so far <br />Oringrcea <br />, y <br />f <br />� �t <br />