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Modeling Results for <br />Colorado River Basin States' Modeling of <br />Colorado River and Reservoir Management Strategies <br />The 10' percentile is an indication of the behavior at lower reservoir levels. <br />Probabilistic Output - Probabilities <br />Probabilities, such as the probability of Lower Basin and Mexico shortage above <br />1 MAF as shown in Table 4 -1, are generated by counting the number of times a <br />value was exceeded (or not exceeded) throughout the 90 traces. To generate the <br />statistics in Table 4 -1, for example, in each year the model reports the total <br />amount of Lower Basin and Mexico shortage. The shortage probability for each <br />year is computed by summing the number of times that the total shortage <br />exceeded 1 MAF during that year for any trace. The number of occurrences is <br />then divided by the number of traces, i.e., 90. This is the same method used to <br />compute all probabilities, such as the probability of a certain release from Powell <br />or the probability of Mead being below minimum power pool. <br />Sensitivity Analysis <br />A sensitivity analysis is performed on a model run to isolate the effects of one <br />significant parameter on the behavior of the entire system. Everything is held <br />constant except the parameter of interest and the results are evaluated against the <br />original run. <br />35 <br />