Summary Report ‎(Working Draft)‎ Modeling of Reservoir Management Strategies for Lakes Powell and Mead December 2005

• Description: Summary Report ‎(Working Draft)‎ Modeling of Reservoir Management Strategies for Lakes Powell and Mead December 2005
• State: CO
• Title: Summary Report ‎(Working Draft)‎ Modeling of Reservoir Management Strategies for Lakes Powell and Mead December 2005
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Meeting

Modeling Results for
Colorado River Basin States' Modeling of
Colorado River and Reservoir Management Strategies
4.4.2 Magnitude of Shortage
Table 4 -1
Probability of Lower Basin & Mexico Shortage Greater Than 1.0 MAF
Table 4.1 describes the probability of a shortage greater than 1 MAF and how
often it occurs. For Step Shortage strategies that do not include the Absolute
Protect 1000 strategy, it is impossible to get a shortage above 600 KAF. Important
to note is that a shortage greater than 1 MAF is required to keep Mead from
dropping below 1000 ft in three years; however, the probability of such a shortage
is never greater than 1%. A probability of 1% can be attributed to an extremely
dry hydrologic event that happened in 1 of the 90 possible traces during that year.
29
Step Short
Step Shortage
Normal
rev2
rev2
AbsPro 1000
First year of
shortage
Does not
Does not
above 1 MAF
occur
occur
2022
Number of
occurrences
none
none
3
Probability of
occurrence in
each year
0
0
0.01
Table 4.1 describes the probability of a shortage greater than 1 MAF and how
often it occurs. For Step Shortage strategies that do not include the Absolute
Protect 1000 strategy, it is impossible to get a shortage above 600 KAF. Important
to note is that a shortage greater than 1 MAF is required to keep Mead from
dropping below 1000 ft in three years; however, the probability of such a shortage
is never greater than 1%. A probability of 1% can be attributed to an extremely
dry hydrologic event that happened in 1 of the 90 possible traces during that year.
29