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4 <br />Modeling Results for <br />Colorado River Basin States' Modeling of <br />Colorado River and Reservoir Management Strategies <br />4.2 Step Shortage <br />As mentioned previously, revisions were made to the original Step Shortage <br />concept resulting in four Step Shortage strategies. The purpose of these revisions <br />was to evaluate the impacts of various patterns of shortage along with the <br />different elevations at which shortages were taken. For each revision, the starting <br />elevation of shortage and the shortage amount for each 25 -ft elevation increment <br />was adjusted. All other parameters were kept constant. <br />Under the normal operations, the elevation of Powell is not sensitive to different <br />shortage strategies in the Lower Basin. In model runs where the balancing of <br />contents between Lakes Powell and Mead occurs (i.e. the Hybrid strategy), there <br />is some sensitivity of Powell's storage to different Lower Basin shortage <br />strategies. For this reason, the Step Shortage revisions were evaluated with Powell <br />operations according to the Hybrid Original strategy. <br />4.2.1 Powell & Mead 10th Percentile Elevations <br />3,660 <br />3,640 <br />3,620 <br />m <br />w <br />c <br />io <br />3,600 <br />w <br />w <br />3,580 <br />0 <br />a <br />m <br />Y <br />N <br />J 3,560 <br />3,540 <br />3,520 <br />2005 <br />22 <br />Figure 4 -5 <br />Lake Powe1110th Percentile Elevations <br />-0- Normal - Step Short Original <br />--a -Step Short Original <br />-B- Step Short rev1 <br />- -Step Short rev2 <br />- *-Step Short rev3 <br />2010 2015 2020 2025 <br />Calendar Year <br />