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April Operations Modeling <br />Lower Basin Assumptions <br />Tributary Inflows (April through December) <br />— Min probable 761 kaf above average' <br />— Most probable 902 kaf above average2 <br />— Max probable 1116 kaf above average' <br />LB states depletion totals at normal apportionments (minus payback <br />in CA) for 2005 <br />' Increase of 66 kaf hom mid -month March <br />Increase of 72 kaf from mid -month March <br />increase of 21 kaf from mid -month March <br />Operational <br />Modeling <br />Scenarios <br />CRMWG <br />April 26, 2005 <br />Operational Modeling Scenarios <br />• Three scenarios: <br />— April 24 -month Study (8.23 maf release for WY 2005) <br />— Reduction in Powell release of 200 kaf (8.03 maf <br />release for WY 2005) <br />— Reduction in Powell release of 500 kaf (7.73 maf <br />released for WY 2005) <br />• Purpose: <br />— Provide information to the CRMWG with regard to the <br />hydrologic effects at Lakes Powell and Mead of a <br />range of Lake Powell releases in WY 2005 <br />— Facilitate discussion /comments from the CRMWG <br />Operational Modeling Scenarios <br />• Assumptions: <br />— All scenarios assume most probable inflow for <br />2005 and 2006 <br />— All scenarios assume 8.23 maf release from <br />Lake Powell in WY 2006 <br />— All scenarios assume a Partial Domestic <br />Surplus condition in CY 2006 <br />5 <br />2005 Lake Powell Release Scenarios <br />1200 <br />a 8.23 maf Release Scenario <br />1000 ■ 8.03 maf Release Scenario �- <br />- ❑ 7.73 maf Release Scenario <br />eW <br />v 600 i <br />c <br />400. <br />o <br />H <br />200 <br />0 <br />5 <br />