Assessment of USBR Modeling of Colorado River Hydrology July 22 2004

• Description: Assessment of USBR Modeling of Colorado River Hydrology July 22 2004
• State: CO
• Date: 7/22/2004
• Author: Kuhn, Eric
• Title: Assessment of USBR Modeling of Colorado River Hydrology July 22 2004
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Meeting

- Reclamation's model does not include most recent
drought, 2000 through 2004. What would it take
for reclamation to update the model through 2003
or 2004?
- The 90 year record may not accurately represent
the current climatological conditions in the
Colorado River Basin. Can we generate some
alternative model runs?
- Based on Reclamation's model runs, the chance
of continuing drought is low. For example, the
probability of Powell dropping below 3490 is about
20% in the next two years. The odds are 4 to 1
against. How do we generate more concern?
- Virgin Flow at Lee's Ferry — Annual
Reports of the Upper Colorado River
Commission (I estimated 2004).
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index
- Pacific and Atlantic Ocean Influences
on Multidecadal Drought Frequency in
the United States by McCabe, Palecki
and Betauccert
- Mean Annual Northern Hemisphere
Temperature Data — Climate Research
Unit, East Anglia U.K.