Colorado Basin Outlook Report March 1 2005

• Description: Colorado Basin Outlook Report March 1 2005
• State: CO
• Date: 3/1/2005
• Author: Green, Allen; Knight, Bruce
• Title: Colorado Basin Outlook Report March 1 2005
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Report/Study

UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN
Streamflow Forecasts - March 1, 2005
UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN
Reservoir Storage (1000 AF) - End of February
Usable I
* ** Usable Storage
Drier =____=
Future Conditions =
_____= Wetter
=____>>
Forecast Point
Forecast I
=_____________
___ _=
Chance Of Exceeding
15.0-
3.8 3.3
5.3
-
Period I
90%
70%
I 50%
51.0
I 30%
10% I
30 -Yr Avg.
-------- - - - - -- -
I
(1000AF)
(1000AF)
I (1000AF)
AVG.)
I (1000AF)
(1000AF) I
(1000AF)
Rio Grande at Thirty Mile Bridge
APR -SEP
139
172
I 200
147
I 232
289
136
Rio Grande Reservoir Inflow
APR -JUL
123
152
I
I 175
148
I
( 202
249
118
Rio Grande at Wagon Wheel Gap
APR -SEP
360
440 -
I
I 490
142
I
I 540
620
345
South Fork Rio Grande at South Fork
APR -SEP
151
177
I
I 195
148
I
I 215
240
132
Rio Grande nr Del Norte
APR -SEP
545
680
I
I 770
145
I
I 860
990
531
Saguache Creek nr Saguache
APR -SEP
23
33
I
I 40
121
I
I - 47
57
33
Alamosa Creek abv Terrace Reservoir
APR -SEP
69
84
�
I 94
134
I
I 104
119
70
La Jere Creek nr Capulin
MAR -JUL
6.50
9.80
I
12.00
138
I
I 14.20
17.50
8.70
Trinchera Creek
APR -SEP
9.6
13.2
I 15.6
130
I _18.0
22
12.0
Sangre de Cristo Creek
APR -SEP
4.50
8.70
I 11.50
131
I 14.30
18.50
8.80
Ute Creek
APR -SEP
9.4
13.3
�
16.0
131
I
18.7
23
12.2
Platoro Reservoir Inflow
APR -JUL
68
79
I
I 86
134
I
93
104
64
APR -SEP
76
88
I 96
135
I 104
116
71
Conejos River nr Mogote
APR -SEP
205
I
245 1
275
I
138 I
305
345
200
San Antonio River at Ortiz -
APR -SEP
11.7
17.4 I
22
134 I
27
36
16.4
Los Pinos River nr Ortiz
APR -SEP
69
I
87 I
100
i
135 I
113
131
74
Culebra Creek at San Luis
APR -SEP
13.7
24 I
31
I
135 I
38
48
23
Costilla Reservoir inflow
MAR -JUL
9.5
I
12.2 I
14.0
I
132 I
15.8
18.5
10.6
Costilla Creek nr Costilla
MAR -JUL
25
I
32 I
I
36
I
139 I
I
40
47
26
UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN
Reservoir Storage (1000 AF) - End of February
UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN
Watershed Snowpack Analysis - March 1, 2005
Number This Year as % of
Watershed of
Data Sites Last Yr Average
ALAMOSA CREEK BASIN 2 117 138
CONEJOS & RIO SAN ANTONIO 4 132 142
CULEBRA & TRINCRERA CREEK 5 145 144
UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN 12 140 152
TOTAL UPPER RIO GRANDE BA 23 137 147
_* 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.
The average is computed for the 1971 -2000 base period.
(1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
(2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream water management.
Usable I
* ** Usable Storage
* **
Reservoir
Capacity
This Last
"
I
Year Year
Avg
CONTINENTAL
15.0-
3.8 3.3
5.3
PLATORO
53.7
6.9 5.2
24.3
RIO GRANDE
51.0
17.3 11.0
17.6
SANCHEZ
103.0
9.4 12.8
24.1
SANTA MARIA
45.0
6.1 5.1
10.6.
III
TERRACE
13.1
4.6 0.3
6.7
UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN
Watershed Snowpack Analysis - March 1, 2005
Number This Year as % of
Watershed of
Data Sites Last Yr Average
ALAMOSA CREEK BASIN 2 117 138
CONEJOS & RIO SAN ANTONIO 4 132 142
CULEBRA & TRINCRERA CREEK 5 145 144
UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN 12 140 152
TOTAL UPPER RIO GRANDE BA 23 137 147
_* 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.
The average is computed for the 1971 -2000 base period.
(1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.
(2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream water management.