Colorado Basin Outlook Report March 1 2005

• Description: Colorado Basin Outlook Report March 1 2005
• State: CO
• Date: 3/1/2005
• Author: Green, Allen; Knight, Bruce
• Title: Colorado Basin Outlook Report March 1 2005
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Report/Study

SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
=--== -
Streamflow Forecasts - March 1, 2005
* 90 %, 70 %, 50%, 30 %, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.
The average is computed for the 1971 -2000 base period.
(1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are actually 5% and 95% exceadance levels.
(2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream water management.
« = =__ ==
Drier =____=
Future Conditions = _____=
Wetter
Forecast Point
Forecast
____________________ Chance Of Exceeding
Period
90%
70%
50% j
30%
10%
30 -Yr Avg.
-
1
(1000AF)
(1000AF)
(1000AF) (% AVG.)
(1000AF) (1000AF)
(1000AF)
Antero Reservoir inflow
APR -JUL
4.6
6.9
9.0 54
11.8
17.5
16.8
APR -SEP
5.4
8.3
11.0 53
14.6
22
21
Spinney Mountain Reservoir inflow
APR -JUL
18.3
27
35 63
46
67
56
APR -SEP
22
33
44 64
58
88
69
Elevenmile Canyon Reservoir inflow
APR -JUL
18.2
27
36 62 (
48
71
58
APR -SEP
22
34
46 64
62
97
72
Chessman Lake inflow
APR -JUL
37
58
78 68
105
164
115
APR -SEP
46
72
98 69
134
211
142
South Platte River at South Platte
APR -JUL
64
100
136 66
185
291
205
APR -SEP
79
126
172 68
235
373
- 255
Bear Creek abv Evergreen -
APR -JUL
5.8
9.5
13.3 69
18.6
31
19.3
APR -SEP
8.2
13.2
18.2 73
25
40
25
Bear Creek at Morrison
APR -JUL
5.9
10.7
16.0 64
24
43
25
APR -SEP
8.0
14.2
21 68
31
55
31
Clear Creek at Golden
APR -JUL
64
82
'
95 86
108 -
126
110
APR -SEP
74
99
116 87
133
158
134
St. Vrain Creek at Lyons
APR -JUL
41
54
62 - 86
70
83
72
APR -SEP -
48
63
73 87
83
98
84
Boulder Creek nr Orodell
APR -JUL
31
38
42 91
46
53
46
APR -SEP
34
43
!
48 91
53
62
53
South Boulder nr Eldorado Spgs
APR -JUL
28
33
36 87
39
44
41
APR -SEP
29
36
40 88
44
51
46
Big Thompson River at mouth nr Drake
APR -JUL
56
-70
79 81
88
102
98
APR -SEP
68
85
96 82
107
124
117
CACHE LaPOUDRE at Canyon Mouth
APR -JUL
141
188
-
220 90
250
300
245
APR -SEP
156
210
245 89
280
335
275
SOUTH PLATTE
RIVER BASIN
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
BASIN
"
Reservoir Storage (1000
AF) - End
of February
Watershed Snowpack
Analysis
March
1, 2005
Usable
* ** unable
Storage
* **
Number
This
Year as % of
Reservoir
Capacity
This
Last
Watershed
of
Year
Year
Avg
Data Sites
Last
Yr Average
ANTERO
20.0
0.8
0.0
16.3
BIG THOMPSON BASIN
7
115
81
BARR LAKE
32.0
30.7
20.3
26.0
BOULDER CREEK BASIN
5
225
84
BLACK HOLLOW
8.0
1.4
2.0
3.9
( CACHE LA POUDRE BASIN 8
111
79
BOYD LAKE
49.0
43.1
31.1
32.4
I CLEAR CREEK BASIN
4
112
92
CACHE LA POUDRE
10.0
9.0
3.1
7.8
SAINT VRAIN BASIN
4
134
76
CARTER
108.9
85.9
51.0
93.4
UPPER SOUTH PLATTE BASIN 15
110
72
CHAMBERS LAKE
_
9.0
5.6
5.6
3.1
TOTAL SOUTH PLATTE BASIN 43
115
80
CREESMAN
79.0
69.8
59.4
59.0
COBB LAKE
34.0
3.5
5.2
13.9
ELEVEN MILE
97.8
98.5
72.9
95.8
EMPIRE
38.0
23.1
25.0
25.6
FOSSIL CREEK
12.0
9.7
6.0
7.4
GROSS
41.8
27.4
26.0
25.3
HALLIGAN
6.4
6.0
3.7
4.8
-
HORSECREEK -
16.0
14.6
12 -.6
12.5
HORSETOOTH
149.7
113.0
120.4
109.2
JACKSON
35.0
21.1
23.5
27.3
JULESBURG
28.0
14.3
15.3
18.9
LAKE LOVELAND
14.0
11.5
10.4
8.8
LONE TREE
9.0
8.2
8.0
6.7
"
MARIANO
6.0
4.9
1.0
4.3
MARSHALL
10.0
9.4
6.1
5.4
MARSTON
13.0
7.0
14.3
12.9
MILTON
24.0
19.4
11.6
17.1
POINT OF ROCKS
70.0
62.4
45.8
65.4
PREWITT
33.0
21.9
7.7
21.0
RIVERSIDE
63.1
48.9
43.3
48.9
SPINNEY MOUNTAIN -
48.7
18.2
20.6
32.2
STANDLEY
42.0
38.8
38.8
33.6
TERRY LAKE
8.0
4.3
5.8
5.3
UNION
13.0
12.5
10.2
11.0
WINDSOR
19.0
10.8
9.1
11.5
* 90 %, 70 %, 50%, 30 %, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.
The average is computed for the 1971 -2000 base period.
(1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are actually 5% and 95% exceadance levels.
(2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream water management.