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METHODOLOGY <br />This study consists of two different components: <br />■ Preliminary Research (required), <br />• Method I (required), <br />■ Method 2 (optional), and <br />■ Method 3 (optional). <br />A brief description of the methodologies to be used to generate climate derived <br />streamflow sequences for each location are described below. The information the <br />investigators have to work with is also described, though the PSC must decide on the <br />final data sets and variables to be examined in this study. <br />Given Information <br />The PSC has determined a set of naturalized historic streamflow data to be used in <br />conjunction with the hydrology models by the PI(s). The CWCB has been asked to <br />advise the PSC on the data that should be used in these efforts. Any streamflow data that <br />cannot be given needs to be established and agreed upon by the PI(s) and the CWCB. <br />That data also must be made available for use by the PSC and AwwaRF. The historic <br />data should have a weekly time increment, range from 1950 — 2005, and include a name, <br />location, and description per gauge. Please refer to the attachment section for further <br />information. <br />Furthermore the PSC, based on consultations with the WWA, established the climate <br />variables and data sets to be used for the future projections. The PI(s) must develop a <br />method to make this data sufficiently work with each hydrology model. <br />Preliminary Research <br />A preliminary analysis will be completed to determine the sensitivity of each basin to a <br />constant temperature increase. This part of the study uses minimal resources and should <br />have a prompt completion. The results should be presented to the PSC, CWCB, and <br />WWA for discussion before further climate analysis is to take place. The basic procedure <br />the investigators should follow to generate climate derived natural streamflow sequences <br />can be used for this initial analysis and is described below under Procedure. <br />Procedure <br />This method involves historic streamflow sequences adjusted for different climate <br />scenarios. <br />Calibrate the hydrology model for each location for which future streamflow <br />scenarios are needed. Calibrations will be needed for points in the upper <br />Colorado, South Platte, Arkansas, Cache la Poudre, St. Vrain, Boulder Creek, and <br />Big Thompson River Basins. The calibrations will make use of historic natural <br />streamflow data (provided by the CWCB and PSC in most cases, although it may <br />be necessary for the investigators to develop historic natural flow data at a few <br />6 <br />