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0.7 <br />0.6 <br />0.5 <br />0.4 <br />m <br />0.3 <br />m <br />0 0.2 <br />c <br />° 0.1 <br />t 0 <br />0 <br />U <br />-0.1 <br />-0.2 <br />-0.3 <br />Month <br />Figure 6: Region 20 — Routt/Moffat counties index Correlation to non - irrigated winter wheat yields. <br />Figure 6 shows winter wheat correlations for the northwest corner of the state where the <br />climate is much different. Here, water is less of a limiting factor during fall and winter, <br />wheat harvest is completed later in the summer and wheat production is a minor part of <br />the local economy. Results from those correlations show the 3 -month SPI in June with <br />the highest predictive power for wheat yields, with May and July also showing a good <br />relationship. The 6 -month SPI is also well correlated. For this region, the CMPDSI is <br />not a good predictor of wheat yield. <br />Water Year Streamflow <br />In an effort to evaluate an additional external and somewhat independent drought impact, <br />total water year streamflow was evaluated in several basins and correlated with the same <br />set of drought indices as was performed above. Figure 7 illustrates that the May Palmer <br />index, which is based on the water balance, is highly predictive of the total water year <br />streamflow at Glenwood Springs, CO. Additionally, longer time scales (12 -24 months) <br />of the SPI are also highly predictive of streamflow. This indicates that the water in our <br />rivers on any given year retains a memory of the previous year as well as the current <br />conditions. <br />1 N N N V C L L L L <br />E 0 E E 2 m Q ' m E 0 E E <br />a O o a�i � LL � � ° O o m <br />� Z 0 � Z <br />