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and just convey water. One respondent even posed the question "If a district doesn't do anything does it <br />need to exist. I am a lawyer and I have been trying to figure out for years how to dissolve this district." <br />Only a couple of people mentioned the recent statewide population boom. It is a known fact that <br />while population has grown rapidly in Colorado, new reservoir construction has almost completely <br />ceased. Compound this with the evidence that suggests we may be leaving a prolonged wet period and <br />into a possible multi -year dry episode, you have the probability of serious water shortages in the very near <br />future. Take into consideration the fact that water projects require many years from planning to <br />completion and it is evident that many conservancy districts and communities need to start actively <br />planning for future needs. <br />8.0 Examples of Good Drought Plans <br />A few municipalities and conservancy districts surveyed have produced good drought plans that <br />could be used as a model by other entities when developing their own drought plans. Copies of these <br />plans may be available through the CWCB or the preparing agency at nominal cost. <br />Ute Water Conservancy District <br />A comprehensive raw water management plan that was volunteered to the CWCB was from the <br />Ute Water Conservancy District. The District's Raw Water Management Plan was prepared in 1990 to <br />address water supply and projected water demand. The plan provides a means to estimate population <br />growth, production, consumption, water losses, snowpack, surface water flows, and reservoir storage for <br />the coming year. The plan incorporates a flow chart that provides quick reference and guidelines for <br />general courses of action to be taken. The plan breaks drought into four categories: abundant supply, <br />minor shortage, serious shortage, and severe drought and develops triggers at each level. <br />Denver Water <br />Denver Water prepared a Drought Response Plan in July 1997 which included an analysis of a <br />synthetic 274 -year tree -ring record to estimate that the drought in the 1950s had about a 29 -year <br />recurrence interval. Drought declaration triggers are tied to July 1 storage, and various response <br />"option menus" for mild, moderate, and severe drought have been developed. In June 1999, Denver <br />Water conducted an in -house exercise of the Drought Response Plan. <br />City of Louisville <br />This discussion of Louisville and their drought planning efforts comes from a presentation made at <br />the Governor's Flood and Drought Conference December 1999 by Noel Hobbs and Joseph Stibrich. The <br />City owns a variety of water rights on South Boulder Creek in the South Plate River watershed that were <br />either originally decreed by the city or consist of agricultural water rights which have undergone transfer <br />to municipal use. Faced with a diminishing supply of available senior water on South Boulder Creek the <br />City initiated a Raw Water Master Plan to define its direction in meeting the future need of its service <br />area. <br />The cornerstone of the master plan was the development of an operational computer model of the <br />City's raw water supply system. The model was designed to simulate the diversion, conveyance, storage <br />and delivery of water supply to current and future demands at the existing and proposed water treatment <br />plant. The computer model simulates the operation of the City's system under various drought conditions <br />patterned after historic droughts. Even though this model can show whether the existing system is <br />capable of withstanding the drought occurring during that period, the results will not provide an estimate <br />of the statistical "reliability" of the system. The analysis will not answer the question is the City protected <br />against the once in a 50 -year drought, the 100 -year drought etc. <br />A statistical analysis of the historic streamflow record was conducted to characterize past drought <br />in terms of magnitude, duration, and severity. Partial duration drought analyses were performed to <br />