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• Moody's downgrades MBIA's rating to A2; outlook is negative <br />J�rody+�a �vaurl�Drss S�snri+ca� <br />Rating Action: MBtA insurance Corporation <br />Moody's downgrades MBIA's rating to A2; outlook is negative <br />Page 1 of 3 <br />Global Credit Research <br />Rating Action <br />19 JUN 2008 <br />Save as FDF � <br />IVew York, June 19, 2008 — Moody's Investors Service has downgraded to A2, from Aaa, the insurance <br />financial strength ratings of MBIA Insurance Corporation (MBIAj and its affiliated insurance operating <br />companies. In the same rating action, Moody's also downgraded the surplus note rating of MBIA Insurance <br />Corporation to Baa1, from Aa2, and ihe senior debt rating of the holding company, MBIA, fnc. (IVYSE: MBi) <br />to Baa2, from Aa3. Toda�s rating action concludes a review for possibfe downgrade that was initiated on <br />June 4, 2008, and reflecis MBIA`s timited financial flexibility and impaired franchise, as we�l as the substantial <br />risk within its portfolio of insured exposures and a movement toward more aggress�ve capital managemen[ <br />within the group. The rating agency said that while the group remains strongly capitalized, estimated to be <br />consistent with a Aa fevel rating, and benefiis from substantial embedded earnings in its existing insurance <br />portfotio, these other business factors led to the lower rating outcome. Furthermore, MBIA's insured portfolio <br />remains vulnerable to further economic deterioration, particularfy given the {everage contained in its sizable <br />portfolio of resecuritization transactions, including some commercial real estate CDOs. The outlook for the <br />ratings is negative, reflecting the material uncertainty about the firm's strategy and the non-negligible <br />likelihood of further adverse developments in its insurance portfolios or operations. <br />As a result of today's rating action, the Moody's-rated securities that are guaranieed or "wrapped" by MBIA <br />are also downgraded to A2, except those with higher public underlying ratings. A lisf of these securities will <br />be made available under "Ratings Lists" at www.moodys.com/guarantors. <br />Moody's said that substantial uncertainty about the ultimate performance of MBIA's mortgage relaied <br />exposures continues to adversefy affect markei perceptions of the firm, greatly impairing its financia! flexibility <br />and ability to write new insurance. MBIA has recorded approximately $2.1 bi[lion in cumulative loss reserves <br />and impairments associated with iis mortgage related portfolio, mostly from second lien mortgage backed <br />securities and asset-backed CDOs (ABS CDOs}. Moody's noted that, over the last few months, MBIA has <br />written little new business, and its financial flexibility has deteriorated substantiatly as evidenced by the <br />significant decline in the company's stock price and high current spreads on its debt securities, making it <br />extremely diffrcult to economically address polential capital shortfalls sf�ould markets continue to worsen. <br />Moody's has re-estimaied expected and stress loss prajections on MBIA's insured portfolio, focusing on the <br />company's mortgage-related exposures as well as other sectors of the portfolio polentialty vulnerable to <br />deterioration in the current environment. Based on Moody's revised assessment of the risks in MBIA's <br />portfolio, estimated stress-case losses would approximate $13.6 billion at the Aaa threshold and $9.4 billion <br />at the A2 threshold. This compares to Moody's estimate of MBIA's claims paying resources of approximately <br />$15.1 billion. Moody's noted that its stress case estimates for MBIA's residentiat mortgage-related exposures <br />increased by roughly $500 million to $5.9 biflion, which was largely offset by insured portfolio amortization <br />since year-end 2007. Relative to Moody's 1.3x "target" level for capital adequacy, MBIA is currently $2.6 <br />billion below the Aaa target level and is $2.8 billion above the A2 target level. <br />The rating agency noted that MBIA's recent decision to retain at the holding company the $1.1 billion in <br />proceeds from its most recent equity offering is indicative of a more aggressive capital management strategy, <br />and is a negative credit consideration for the insurance company's rating. Such decision, however, puts the <br />holding company in a strong liquidity position, said Moody's, providing additional comfort about the firm's <br />ability fo manage the effect of acceleraGon and coltateralization in its GIC business triggered by the <br />downgrade. MBIA has indicated that the firm does not intend to issue additional dilutive capital in the curreni <br />environment and that if will review its strategic options for redeploying the holding company funds, including <br />possible stodc buybacks. <br />Moody's said that, beyand MBIA's afFected mortgage related exposures, portfolio risks appear to be well <br />contained as reflected by its core low-risk municipal book and high average underlying ratings. Most <br />sUuctured finance sectors outside of residentia! mortgage related products are performing welt, although <br />certain exposures, such as some commercial real estate CDOs, because of their leveraged structure and <br />sector concentration, may be more sensitive ta severe economic or sector deterioration. While portfofio <br />http://www.moodys. com/moodys/cust/research/NID Cdocs/ 19/2007 l 000005 1 1 849. asp?doc... 6/ 19/2008 <br />