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2. Scenarios A2 and B2 -Recreation-Related Impacts <br />Two additional scenarios are added for the assessment of the impacts associated with the <br />present proposed critical habitat designation. These examine the extent of excess capacity in <br />the recreational services sector. Scenario A2 follows from Scenario Al and is based on the <br />conjecture that there is sufficient excess capacity in the recreation sector in the national <br />economy that the negative impacts in the regional economy are fully offset. Thus, there <br />would be no negative impact in the recreation sector. Scenario B2 follows from B 1 and is <br />based on the conjecture that there is no excess capacity at the national level in the recreation <br />sector. Thus, the negative regional impact also would be felt by the national economy. <br />The increase in the aggregate output would be $5.38 million for Scenario A2, earnings are <br />projected to grow by $5.2 million, employment is projected to increase by 230 jobs, and <br />government revenues to grow by $2.06 million (see Table I-7-3). These are, of course, <br />national economic impacts. For Scenario B2, these impacts would result in an increase in <br />output of $0.09 million, an increase in employment of 50 jobs, an increase in earnings of <br />$0.30 million, and an increase in govemment revenues of $0.01 million. As before, Scenarios <br />A2 and B2 provide a set of bounds on the national economic effects associated with the <br />proposed critical habitat 'designation. <br />3. Present Value and Annualized Incremental Impacts <br />If it is assumed that the adjustments to the national economy represented by Scenarios Al and <br />B 1 results are permanent, then the present value and annualized values can be estimated. <br />Table I-7-4 presents these results. For output, the discounted present value (3 percent) would <br />range from $75.46 million for Scenario A 1 to -$66.89 million for Scenario B 1. In <br />comparison, the traditional approach would provide a value of $52.69 million, which falls <br />within the range as projected by the CGE model. This is also the case for the annualized <br />values. <br />I-44 <br />