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between the region and the remainder of the economy.13 Decisions, however, concerning the extent to which the resource changes represent national impacts or the extent to which they are pure transfers from elsewhere in the economy still must be made. In what follows, four alternative scenarios are analyzed. These scenarios represent bounds on the results where it is either assumed there is or is not excess construction capacity and whether or not substitute recreation sites exist outside the region. 1. Scenario Al and B1-Constniction-Related Impacts The distinction between region-level impacts and national efficiency effects is due to the fact that some region-level impacts are canceled out at the national level through transfers of resources from other parts of the economy. The extent to which the impacts are pure transfers depends on the extent to which capacity remains unused in the relevant economic sectors elsewhere in the economy. The thermal generation capacity expansion, projected to be required to offset losses in hydroelectric generation, involves the construction sector and the combined manufacturing (capital equipment) sector. These are sectors which are sensitive to the overall state of the economy. During economic slowdown periods there is typically considerable excess capacity in these sectors and the expansion within the Colorado Basin Region will draw these idle resources from the national economy. In this case, the net national direct impacts in these sectors will be the same as the regional impacts. This constitutes Scenario Al in the following discussion. Alternatively, if the economy is near or at full employment, the expansion in thermal capacity will simply shift already employed resources from elsewhere in the economy and the net national impacts will be zero. This is the case depicted in Scenario B 1 below. Table I-7-2 reports the impacts associated with the proposed critical habitat designation in terms of percentage deviation from the without fish scenario. Under Scenario Al there is an expansion in the national economy and this expansion is reported in Table I-7-2 relative to the level of economic activity in the Colorado River Basin region. Thus, the expansion 13 A presentation of consumer surplus and producer measures can be found in Volume II, Chapter II-15. I-42