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<br />THE SENSITIVITY OF STREAMFLOW AND WATER SUPPLY <br />IN THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN TO CLIMATIC CHANGES <br /> <br />EXECUTIVE SUMMARY <br /> <br />Linda L. Nash <br />Peter H. Gleick <br /> <br />June 1993 <br /> <br />Pacific Institute for Studies in <br />Development, Environment, and Security <br />1204 Preservation Park Way. <br />Oakland, California 94612 1 <br />(510) 251-1600 <br /> <br />Growing international concern about the greenhouse effect has led to increased interest in the <br />regional implications of changes in temperature and precipitation patterns for a wide range of societal and <br />natural systems, including agriculture, sea level, biodiversity, and water resources. The accumulation of <br />greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities are likely to have significant, though still poorly <br />understood, impacts on water quality and availability. One method developed over the last several years <br />for determining how regional water resources might be affected by climatic change is to develop scenarios <br />of changes in temperature and precipitation and to use hydrologic simulation models to study the impacts <br />of these scenarios on runoff and water supply. In this paper we present the results of a multi-year study of <br />the sensitivity of the hydrology and water resources systems in the Colorado River Basin to plausible climatic <br />changes. <br /> <br />The Colorado River is one of the most important river systems in the western United States. It is <br />the principal source of water in a semi-arid basin that covers approximately 243,000 square miles, parts of <br />seven states. and reaches into Mexico (Figure ES-1). The study was conducted in two parts: the first part <br />evaluated the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation on runoff using a conceptual hydrologic <br />model developed and operated by the National Weather Service. Among the impacts studied were changes <br />in streamflow into Lake Powell and on three important tributaries of the Upper Colorado River: the White <br /> <br />1 Final Report. This work was. supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Grant # <br />CR816045-o1. <br /> <br />vii <br />