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• The Mineral Bottom results reflected the extremely restricted range <br />of suitable flows for YOY at that study site (Figure 16). While flow <br />reductions have not been so severe as those upstream at Ouray (because of <br />intervening tributaries and ground water effects), they appear to have <br />provided some positive physical habitat effect. Oddly, at the 50% <br />percentile exceedence level (noting those habitat values expected to <br />occur during one-half of the months of record) the depletions have caused <br />very little change in habitat except during August. Depletions during <br />August appear to have brought the flows within the range of suitability, <br />whereas depletions during the runoff months were still not great enough <br />to result in suitable low flow levels. <br />Results at the Potash site somewhat reflected those at Mineral <br />Bottom (Figure 17). Again, while reductions in flow were somewhat <br />uniform, they had not been as great as those in the Upper Green River. <br />Also, the reductions were proportionally greatest during runoff months; <br />during September, the percentage reduction was quite low. <br />Only during July was YOY physical habitat effected significantly by <br />flow reductions; again, a positive effect was noted. In general the <br />effects of flow depletions upon the nursery habitats of both rivers <br />appear to be either neutral or positive, with respect to depth, velocity, <br />and substrate. <br />The actual flow times series (1960-1980) were completed for use in <br />further refinements of flow recommendations and determinations of effects <br />of recent flow events upon endangered fish populations. This report does <br />not provide an in-depth analysis of the actual flow time series; more <br />will be done with this information when more detailed life history infor- <br />mation is made available. <br />Temperature Model Results <br />Table 2 identifies the respective gages and their associated <br />adjusted multiple correlation coefficients (r) and probable difference <br />(d). The correlation coefficient was the ratio of explained variation of <br />the predicted temperature to the total variation of the published tem- <br />perature. The probable error was the expected difference range of the <br />published temperature with respect to the predicted temperatures; i.e., <br />50 percent of the published temperatures fall within the probable dif- <br />ference limits of the predicted temperature. <br />The regression models for the headwater and point source gages were <br />used to predict the initial (headwater) water temperatures necessary <br />for the physical process instream water temperature model. The regres- <br />sion models for the validation gages were used to predict temperatures <br />against which to measure the performance of the physical process model. <br />• Temperature Simulations at Black Rocks and Ouray <br />At Black Rocks, the May flows ranging from 7,000 to 13,500 cfs were <br />associated with temperatures ranging from 15° C to 13° C (Figure 18). <br />The mean annual May flow (10,000 cfs) was sufficiently high to maintain <br />23