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1 <br />CHAPTER IV <br />ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES <br />1 <br />located on the Colorado River near the Colorado-Utah border, <br />31 miles below the confluence of the Gunnison and Colorado <br />Rivers) in 9 out of 10 years. Historical flows at the Stateline <br />gage have rarely dropped below 2,000 cfs. Between the time <br />Aspinall was built and 1982, this has only occurred once in the <br />August-September period. Between now and the year 2040 (when <br />the Upper Basin is expected to fully deplete its allotment under <br />the Compact), depletions are expected to continue to reduce <br />river flows. Year 2040 flows below the confluence of the <br />Gunnison and Colorado are projected to drop below 2,000 cfs <br />25 percent of the time, but only in August and September. <br />In the year 2040, if the interim regime was continued as the <br />postconsultation regime, Aspinall releases will produce between <br />0-500 cfs additional flow in the Gunnison River during August <br />and September, the exact quantity dependent on natural flow in <br />the Colorado River. Current Reclamation projections of future <br />water demand indicate that after the year 2040, 75 percent of <br />the time no additional releases will be needed to meet the <br />2,000 cfs target. Fifteen percent of the time supplemental <br />releases of up to 500 cfs will be supplied in August and <br />September. Ten percent of the time no additional releases will <br />be requested to meet the 2,000 cfs target (since the agreement <br />is for 9 out of 10 years). Future research on the Gunnison and <br />Colorado Rivers as a part of Section 7 consultation on the <br />Aspinall Unit will further evaluate the 2,000 cfs flow target <br />and the frequency that the target must be met. <br />Water right transactions involving rivers such as the Yampa and <br />White Rivers will attempt to preserve naturally occurring flows. <br />Research investigations will determine instream flow needs on <br />the White River and refine estimates of instream flow needs on <br />the Yampa River. <br />b. State and Private Water Management <br />(1) Assumptions <br />A year 2000 analysis was undertaken because the year 2000 is <br />commonly accepted as the near term planning target for most <br />planning endeavors and because it approximates the 15-year <br />timeframe for the completion of the Proposed Action. This <br />analysis provides insight, on a gross level, into potential "hot <br />spots," i.e., Upper Basin reaches where there may be conflicts <br />(due to depletions) between proposed development actions and <br />endangered fishes instream flow needs. Appendix D displays <br />project depletion data used to project the year 2000 flows. <br />(2) Impact Findings <br />The year 2000 analysis identified several river segments where <br />water development could occur. Depletions associated with these <br />IV-A-6 <br /> <br /> <br />1 <br />e <br />1 <br /> <br />1 <br />1 <br /> <br />1 <br />i <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />