Amici Curiae Brief of Northwest Colorado Council of Governments, Town of Minturn, Grand County, Gunnison County, Pitkin County

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9islative Council Le Colorado Denver, Colorado Mike Mauer ? Economic Chief Economist ToddHerreid Josh Harwood Jonathan Lurle Chronicle NatalieMullis Economi sts Marle Garcia StaffAssistant Apri129, 2004 'g? Economy J Inflatiorradjusted gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualizecl rate of 4.1% during the fourth quarter of 2003. For the ertire year, GDP grew 3.1%, the highest growth rate since 2000. The most significant factor contributing to growth was the cor- tinued strong recovery in fixed investment, particu- larly business spendijig. After nine quarters of de- clines, business speniiing increased an average of 10.2% in each of the last three quarters. After months of declines or lackluster gains, national employment jumped by 308,000 jobs in March. While the last quarte:- of 2003 posted an average monthly gain of 60,000 jobs, the first quarter of 2004 posted an average monthly gain of 171,000 jobs. This provides the first sign of a national employment recovery. Meanwhile the unemployment rate held steady at 5.7% in METch 2004. For the first three months of 2004, the,anemployment rate averaged 5.6% compared to the average unemployment rate of 5.8% in first three mDnths of 2003. While initial claims for unemployment insurance remained above 400,000 each week through much of the first nine months of 2003, they ha ve remained below 400,000 for over six months, an indication of a stable labor market. `:..the first quarter of 2004 posted an average monthly gain of 171,000 jobs, the first sign of a national employment reeovery." Personal income ini:reased 0.4% in February and is 4.6% ahead on a year-over-year basis, the strongest twelve-month growth rate in i:hree years. For the second month in a row, the la.rgest factor behind the rise in income was the growtti in wages and salaries. Consumer spending rose 0.20% in February, repre- senting the fifth straight mont:h of growth. Retail sales posted strong growth with a 1.8% growth rate in 1Vlarch and an 8.2% growth rate over a year ago. Among retail sectors, building materials led the way as the spring season motivate:d plans for additional residential construction. Corisumer confidence held steady over the past two mor.iths. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentime;nt Index rose 1.4 points in March, while the Conference Boazd measure of consumer confidence was un.changed. Both surveys found that respondents felt tYiat current conditions improved over the prior mon.th, suggesting that the optimism regarding recent ec:onomic performance may translate to improved ec;onomic conditions in the neaz future. The manufacturing sector r,ontinues to show signs of expansion. The Institute of Supply Management Index rose to 62.5 in March, the fifth straight month it has been above 60. Before this recent trend, the index had not reached 60 sin.ce 1987. The new or- ders index was over 65, sugl;esting a positive view for demand of manufacturedl products. The employ- ment index has been above :50 for five months, indi- cating an expansion trend in. manufacturing jobs. While the official measure af manufacturing employ- ment shows a decreasing tre:nd in jobs, the decline has significantly slowed in recent months and can be viewed as an improving indicator. Industrial pro- The Legislative Council is the research aRn of the Colorado General Assembly. The Council provides non-partisan infortnation serv ices and steff support to the Colorado Legislalure. Representative Lola Spradley, Speaker of the House Representative Keith King, Majority Leader of the House Representative Andrew RomanoH, Minority Leader of the House Senator Jahn Mdrews, F'residont of the Senate Senator Mark Hillman, Le:ader of the Senate Senator Joan FitrGarald, Minority Leader of the Senate