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Executive Summar <br />Apri123, 2003 <br />PaLye vi <br />As shown on the table, most water providers have sufficient water supplies to cover the <br />current levels of demand (see page 8 for discussion of 2002 drought impacts). However, <br />under future conditions, nearly two-thirds of the providers are expected to have demands <br />that exceed their current water rights and/or water availability. The largest shortages are <br />predicted for the Fraser River upstream of Tabernash, the Blue River upstream of Dillon <br />Reservoir, Snake River upstream of Dillon Reservoir and Tenmile Creek upstream of <br />Dillon Reservoir. <br />Even though the hydrologic model calculates volumes down to the acre-foot and flow <br />rates to a fraction of a cubic foot per second, the numbers provided on the table above, <br />and in the full report, should be considered as guidelines and not the exact value of the <br />shortage or supply. It is most useful to consider the reported values as relatively "large" <br />or "small" and use comparisons and common sense to get a feel for the size and <br />likelihood of future supplies and shortages. <br />IV. PACSM Analysis Results <br />Grand County <br />The analysis of PACSM results was divided into sub-basins. <br />Fraser River Basin above and below the Town of Fraser: Under the PACSM model, <br />municipal and domestic water supplies were adequate for existing levels of water <br />demand, but most water providers would experience shortages under future demand <br />scenarios. Shortages would be most severe for the Grand County Water & Sanitation <br />District, ranging from an annual minimum of 616 acre-feet to a maximum of 1,903 acre- <br />feet and averaging 996 acre-feet. These shortages would occur primarily in the fall and <br />winter months as a result of lack of physical supply due to ]ow streamflows and Denver's <br />upstream diversions and would coincide with periods when streamflow would be below <br />the CWCB instream flows, fish minimum flows and wastewater treatment plant low- <br />flows. <br />Water quality impacts related to Berthoud Pass, though not specifically examined in this <br />study, emerged as issues. This includes water quality impacts related to winter sanding <br />operations on Berthoud Pass and the potential for an accident of a truck carrying <br />hazardous materials on Berthoud Pass. The latter could significantly affect water supply <br />in the upper part of the Fraser River. <br />Colorado River Basin above the Fraser River confluence: Municipal and domestic <br />water supplies were adequate under both existing and future demands. Though Northern <br />is required to bypass flows below Lake Granby to maintain minimum instream flow <br />requirements, instream flows below Lake Granby will be below CWCB, fish minimum <br />and fish optimum levels. However, due to data inadequacies, it is not clear exactly how <br />often this would occur. The only time flows will be below CWCB levels is when inflows <br />are less than the minimum flow. Lake levels in Lake Granby were not fully evaluated in <br />the study but should be before entering the solutions phase as lake levels relate to marina <br />operations. <br />Hydrosphere, 1002 Walnut Suite 200, Boulder, CO 80302