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l'ruendle/Nankerv is/Porth f'age 7 5/22/2003 <br />tiuitahle: ti?r Timher Ilarvest, the simulatcd trend in the 1_odgcpole pine tyre serms reasonahle in <br />terms of txoth histurical stand contiguration and sinnilated drelines in watcr yield that may havr <br />occurrrd in that forest typc over time (Figure 5). Simulated water yield, Gom I,odgepolc pine, <br />has alsu hecn rnc?re ur less stable fbr the last SO to 60 years and little aclditional declinc is <br />prujccted intu the tuture. Onee a Lodgepole pine, or any, stancf was projrcted hack to the age <br />zeru, or non-stocked, condition we made the assumption that it was a fully forrtitcd saw timhcr <br />stand in the timr intcrva) prior to it Exing non-stocked. It, tor cxample, a stand was estimated <o <br />tx- 100 years uld in the year 2000, we assumed that 100-}ear-oIci stand wuuld havc tken nun- <br />storkcd, or at 0 age, in 1900 and then fiilly tbrested in 1880. It'the StanJ were anything Icss than <br />a fully forested saw ti?ntxr stand in 1880, our simulation would undcrestimate the fluw for 1880. <br />Since l.odgepcile pine is a pioneer sEx:cies, as are Aspc;n and Ponderosa pine, and usually occurs <br />in evcn aged stands, the projrctiun of' current stand eonditions hark in time shuuld te <br />str:iighttiOrward unless the currcnt Lodgepolc stand sucrceded an asprn titanJ withoul a titand <br />replacrment event orcurring. <br />tii?nilar contidence cannut tk placed un the simulations of the trends in the srruce-fir f'orest type. <br />In contrast to I,odgeExole pine, one-tourth of the spruce-tir type ocrurs in what is designatcd <br />Wildcrness and only 45 percent is classified as Suituble tor Timhcr Ilarvest. I'his has two <br />implications. First, a greater rnrcentage of' the spruce-fir fi?rrst type has hr;en (1flllCCle(I II'l)Rl <br />hurvest, which may support the pc:rccption ofmure uniform stands of saw timhc;r. It may alsc> tx <br />that the spnice-tir has heen turther protected in non-wildcrness arcas bccausc ot'its occurrence in <br />riparian environments or in higher elevation, and less accrssihle, sites. [ Intiorlunatcly, thrk simc <br />lactorti cuuld contrihute tu the forest inventory data that represenls the spruce-lir type heing less <br />representative than it might be for the othcr forest tyF?es. Without knowing the history uf each <br />spruce-tir stand, we treated the spruce-fir the same as other spcrics in the histc?rica) analysis anLl <br />a.tsumed it was non-stuckecf at the Eoint where we discountrd the current agr to 0. ( iivcn the <br />une:ven ag«1 silvical characteristic, ut' spruce-fir, it is morr likcly that the spruce replacr(l a <br />pionecr species, that had tiilly occupieJ the sitr hyelrologically, or it ha> >imp1y maintaincd it,eI f <br />as an uneven aged ,tand. over tinic. <br />10 <br />o g <br />0 <br />0 <br />0 <br />? 6 <br />x <br />4 <br />L <br />u <br />Q 2 <br />4 <br />? <br />d <br />1 <br />3" <br />? <br />A <br />2? <br />5 <br />1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 1997 2017 <br />Non 11 Seed/Sap ¦ Pole ¦ Saw E3 Water Yield I