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Decreases in EA volume due to evaparation and seepage are become increasingly significant as total reservoir levels decrease and the EA volume becomes proportionally greater. For example, total evaporation/seepage losses averaged around 7,000 af in the 2000 to 2005 water years. In WY2005 and 2006, total losses were 14,162 af and 19,282 af, respectively. WATER YEAR 2007 PROJECTIONS AND EA RELEASE PRIORITIES Water Year 2007 Projected Water Supply The Districts provided the following predictions for SNI and Type-of-Year for the WY07 to the EA Manager on October 11, 2006. Item SNI, October through March SNI, October through April Type-of-Year Prediction 295,000 af 340,000 af Very Dry The Type-of-Year is based on the predicted SNI (295,000 a fl and Lake McConaughy carry-over contents on October 1, 2006 (364,200 a fl, in accordance with Section III of the EA Document. If the predictions hold true and no EA releases are made, EA content by the end of the non- irrigation season will be about 143,000 af (i.e., 10% SNI + Carry-0ver - Evap./Seep. or 34,000 + 114,000 - 5,000 = 143,000). Prior to the 2003 water year, flows at Grand Island were projected and compared to the Service's instream flow recommendations for the purposes of projecting shortages during target flow periods. During drought conditions; however, estimating flows at Grand Island based on the Districts' projected operations, has proven problematic. Shortages were determined from estimates of flows at Overton and Grand Island, using projected Jeffrey and J-2 returns and average river gains/losses. Based on experiences during drought conditions, use of average gains/losses overestimate flow expected to occur at Grand Island. Using average monthly gains/losses from high loss periods (e.g., 1993-1994) also provide erroneous results. Therefore, a more general description, based on operations and conditions experienced during the drought water years 2002 to 2006, was again used to predict flow conditions for WY07. Due to below-normal water supply forecasts and low Lake McConaughy carry-over storage, the Districts will again follow a drought mode of operation to maximize the combined storage in Lake McConaughy and Sutherland Project. No Lake McConaughy releases for diversion into Sutherland Canal are anticipated except as necessary to provide for icing conditions ar to maintain the elevation of Sutherland Reservoir. Releases at Keystone Diversion into the Sutherland Supply Canal and into Sutherland Reservoir are expected to occur November 2006 through February 2007. No releases from Sutherland Reservoir or Lake Maloney are expected from October 2006 through May 2007. On September 28, 2006, CNPPID began releasing water from the J-2 Return in a cyclic pattern. Continued cycling at the J-2 hydroplant is anticipated throughout the remainder of the non-irrigation season. An average daily flow level between 200 cfs and 500 cfs at Overton is expected to occur through late spring with estimated minimum and maximum instantaneous discharges of 300 cfs to 2,000 Water Year 2007 EA AOP 5 January 19, 2007