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<br />1 <br /> <br />t <br /> <br />1 <br />1 <br />1 <br /> <br />[1 <br /> <br />1 <br />fl <br />1 <br /> <br />1 <br />~i <br /> <br />collection as part of the Upper Basin Recovery Program; 5) use the mfldels and the <br />parameter estimates obtained from the data synthesis step to determine the current <br />status for all identifiable subpopulations of the endangered fish; and 6) make the <br />models available to state and federal managers to perform simulations of management <br />scenarios and predict possible outcomes. <br />A tremendous amount of effort and money go into the upper basin annually with the <br />intention of recovering the endangered fish species. This model should guide those <br />efforts in terms of providing a tool for determining which data are needed to first <br />understand the current status of the populations, make some assumptions about the <br />causes of those patterns and finally to be able to document any changes in population <br />trends associated with management or even environmental changes. Currently, there <br />seems to be a number of `sampling' procedures and protocols that provide data in <br />search of a question. The questions are hard, but seem straight forward: i) What are <br />the current population trends of the target populations; 2) Why do they look the way the <br />do; 3) What can be done to change those patterns if so desired and 4) What <br />information is needed to document any responses that may occur. A modeling <br />approach such as the one employed here can help in organizing and directing activities <br />specifically aimed at the first question of determining the population status and trends <br />currently and the last question of determining how future changes can be documented. <br />A generic model was developed (initially using Mathcad and later translated to Quattro- <br />ix <br />1 <br />