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1 <br />' The direct impacts were constructed b translating the impacts of mans <br />by gang flows, for the <br />' purpose of protecting endangered fishes, on planned water development projects into changes in <br />the economic activity in the region. These impacts were incorporated into the I-O models <br />developed to analyze the economic consequences of steps taken to preserve and recover the listed <br />fishes. Modifying or eliminating projects for which there is insufficient water would be <br />' represented as a negative shock to the economic activity in the baseline scenario. These shocks <br />from foregone water development and associated construction costs occur throughout the study <br />' period. <br /> 1. Agriculture Impacts <br /> Foregone agriculture revenues were determined by removing irrigated acreage from the <br /> b <br />li <br />d <br /> ase <br />ne an <br />treating the withdrawn lands as if they were planted using the existing <br /> cropping pattern percentages. Because an agricultural entity is more likely to retire <br /> lower-valued crops first, this method provides an upper bound on impacts due to fish <br /> protection measures. These impacts are entered as supply shocks in the manner described <br /> in Chapter 3. <br /> <br /> 2. Construction <br />Impacts <br /> Water unavailable for use implies that some water development projects will not be <br /> feasible. To account for this impact, the project construction activity is subtracted from <br /> the construction sector. <br />3. Electric Power Impacts <br />Changing the operation of the Navajo Dam will result in a change in the timing of the <br />output of hydroelectric power. For the City of Farmington this will necessitate purchase <br />of power from the grid. This is modeled as a reduction in the level of activity in the <br />T.C.U. sector. <br /> <br />1 <br />35 <br />