Laserfiche WebLink
<br />1 <br /> <br /> <br />1 <br />1 <br /> <br /> <br />1 <br /> <br />1 <br />w <br /> <br /> <br />Chapter 4 Construction of the Economic Baseline Projection (WOFBA) <br />A. Economic Baseline <br />The baseline scenario (WOFBA) represents a projection of the regional economy assuming no <br />actions are taken to protect listed fishes. It serves as a counter factual to the scenario in which <br />actions on behalf of endangered fishes are taken. This chapter details the construction of the <br />baseline. The methodology for developing the baseline was described in Chapter 3. In all cases, <br />actual 1990 output and employment for each of the ten counties, as provided by the IMPLAN <br />model, form the core of the 1995-2040 projections." The following steps were followed to <br />produce the WOFBA economic baseline projection of the regional economy: <br />1. IMPLAN data for 1990 were used to construct the initial multi-sector I-O model. <br />These data were updated to 1995 using Regional Economic Information System (REIS) <br />data for 1993 and 1995 (U.S. Department of Commerce, 1995). <br />2. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) regional economic projection data (for the <br />period 1995-2040) were used to generate an initial projection. Since these data are <br />spatially aggregated (available at the state level), they do not capture the specific plans of <br />firms, households, and local governments at the level of a small region. <br />3. BEA data were augmented with local data that include various regional development <br />plans and water delivery projects." The major projects included in the baseline <br />projection are: <br /> <br /> <br />Navajo Indian Irrigation Project (NIIP) - Blocks 9-11 <br />Animas-La Plata (ALP) Water Delivery Project - Phases 1 and 2 <br />" Figures 2-D-1 and 2-D-2 provide 1990 output and employment, respectively, for the study region. <br /> <br /> <br />12 Data on tribal water development plans were partially provided by the tribes in response to a survey sent to <br />the four tribes in May of 1995. The survey is included in Appendix A. <br />24 <br />L