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<br />1 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Abundance estimates calculated with data collected since 1992 suggested a substantial <br />decline in the number of razorback suckers in the middle Green River when compared to earlier <br />estimates. On average, the most recent and reliable estimates from 1998 and 1999 data suggested <br />that only 116 (SE = 29} wild fish remained. Abundance estimates from 1985 to 1992 averaged <br />524 fish (Modde et al. 1996). Even recalculating those estimates with a revised data base that <br />included more recapture records suggested that the population averaged about 456 fish from <br />1985 to 1992 (SE = 185). Those earlier estimates were mostly based on sampling fish only at the <br />spawning bar upstream of Jensen, which may have under-estimated population abundance in the <br />entire middle Green River reach. Captures made from 1996 to 1999 were from sampling that <br />was more evenly distributed, and thus, it is likely that recent estimates more closely reflect the <br />population in the entire middle Green River. We also considered that size-selective sampling <br />may have biased low the number ofsmall-bodied razorback suckers available for capture and <br />influenced conclusions about declining population size and lack of recruitment. We dismissed <br />that notion because recently stocked razorback suckers that were relatively small were captured <br />in Basinwide and other sampling in the Green River. Thus, we feel as though conclusions <br />regarding substantially reduced population size were warranted. Given the low recapture rates <br />and the small apparent population size, we urge that more reliance be placed on interpreting and <br />reporting a range of possible abundance values (e.g. confidence intervals) rather than annual <br />point estimates. <br />We attempted survival-rate estimation from several different models. The Cormack- <br />too sparse. The recaptures only model and Pradel's survival and population rate of change model <br />Jolly-Seber model, which also permits abundance estimation, did not converge because data were <br />yielded useful estimates of survival for this population. Estimates of ~ were relatively consistent <br />23 <br /> <br />